Five provinces have stable finances that are expected to remain strong throughout the rest of the century, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO)..“All other provinces and territories have current fiscal policies that are not sustainable over the long term,” warned analysts. Two are headed for insolvency..“We estimate current fiscal policy in five provinces is sustainable over the long term: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Québec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia,” said a PBO Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023. .“We estimate these provinces have fiscal room to increase spending or reduce taxes.”.“Deficits combined with rising public debt charges lead to excessive debt accumulation in some provinces and the territories,” wrote analysts. .The projected debt ratios for provinces facing financial challenges this century are estimated to be 42% of GDP in Ontario, 116% of GDP in Newfoundland and Labrador, and 131% of GDP in British Columbia..According to Blacklock’s Reporter, two provinces are on track to face insolvency this century. .Manitoba is projected to have the highest debt-to-economy ratio in Canada, reaching 282% by 2097..“Under current policy, we project Manitoba will see the largest deterioration,” wrote analysts..According to forecasts, Prince Edward Island is projected to have the second-highest net debt as a percentage of its economy, reaching 244% by 2097..“Prince Edward Island spends more on elderly healthcare on a per-person basis relative to other age groups than any other province,” said the PBO..Atlantic Canada has the highest proportion of elderly residents in Canada..“I don’t think anybody knows what to do,” Dr. Dennis Furlong, the late New Brunswick Health minister, testified at 2017 Senate National Finance committee hearings. “Having sat at the table with the ministers of Health for Canada, I can tell you I’m not sure anybody knows.”.“We must have a plan,” said Furlong. .“The analogy I would use if you go into a store and you don’t know what you want, chances are you’re not going to find it. And that’s where we are in Canada with healthcare.”.The PBO figures followed an August 22, 2022, Population Projections report by Statistics Canada that predicted Western Canada overall will grow by a third within 20 years while one province will shrink in population. .Newfoundland and Labrador is projected to see its population fall from 521,000 to 478,000, with a third of residents over 65..“Canada will remain dependent on high immigration levels to renew its population, particularly in the context of a low and recently declining fertility rate,” said Population Projections. .“If Canada’s population continues to increase in the future, it will be mainly because of immigration which is expected to remain quite significant in the coming decades.”.The target for immigration quotas is set to increase to 500,000 annually by 2026.
