Months before the U.S. announced sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods, confidential federal focus groups showed many Canadians were already bracing for economic fallout, fearing mass layoffs, rising prices, and worsening relations with Washington.The Privy Council Office commissioned the research in November, just days after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president. Conducted in seven provinces between November 12-21, the polling revealed deep unease among participants, particularly about trade and the potential for protectionist U.S. policies.Blacklock's Reporter said pollsters with The Strategic Counsel, hired under a $1.6 million contract, found many Canadians expected Trump’s administration to take a tougher stance than previous presidents, with several warning this could hurt Canada’s manufacturing and auto sectors. Some believed the federal government would need to strengthen trade ties with other regions such as Europe and East Asia if U.S. tariffs were imposed.Respondents described Canada-U.S. relations as “tumultuous,” “uncertain,” and “challenging.” Many doubted the Canadian government was doing enough to defend national interests, citing the imbalance in military and economic power between the two countries.Participants also anticipated changes in border and defence policy. Some predicted the U.S. would push Canada to spend more on its military and tighten security at the border — both of which later materialized in January cabinet announcements.The final focus group report, Canadians’ Views, was delivered to political aides on January 20, the same day the U.S. formally unveiled its 25% tariff plan. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau responded by calling for national unity, warning Canadians on February 1 to prepare for hardship: “We will experience difficult times. I ask you to be there for each other.”Prime Minister Mark Carney launched the Liberals’ “elbows up” re-election campaign on March 23, pledging to confront tariffs, boost defence spending, and increase border protection. “Trump claims Canada isn’t a real country,” Carney said. “He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen.”
