According to the Food Professor, or Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, an agri-food professor who operates a lab out of Dalhousie University, Canada's chicken prices could soar to record levels in September if the feds don't do something about it.The demand for chicken is only growing across the country — with the Chicken Farmers of Canada (CFC) reporting this week that the first four months of 2026 saw their production increase by 5.6%.A good thing at first glance, Charlebois comments on his Substack, but the CFC still acknowledges that underproduction for them is still an issue, and prices for whole birds and legs have reached record levels.And now what's at risk is higher price increases for the protein in September if the feds do not open the regulated supply managed poultry market.."For households already struggling with sharply higher beef prices, another increase at the chicken counter would be especially painful," stated Charlebois.Supply management regulates the milk, dairy, and egg industries by controlling the production of these products.It does this by requiring farmers to purchase quota permits, allowing producers to sell a set amount of product, and limiting the amount of foreign imports.It was meant, as Charlebois puts it, to "balance domestic production with Canadian demand while providing farmers with stable and predictable returns.".Yet what it was never meant to do — ration the market, sustain inefficiency, and allow for scarcity in the industry.What's more, production allocation is only a goal to aspire to, it does not guarantee achievement and does not account for all the things that can go wrong, including, but not limited to, chick shortages, avian flu, mortality, and extreme heat, which can prevent farming from fulfilling their quotas.CFC also claimed the recent underproduction has been caused by the consequences of avian flu.When something goes wrong in the supply-managed system, its fault becomes obvious: its inflexibility to increase imports automatically when consumers need it..With this, Charlebois recommends the feds take action by authorizing supplemental imports of one million kilograms of chicken per week for eight weeks.He says this would only represent 3.5% of Canada's weekly production, enough to improve supply and put pressure on prices to lower without overwhelming Canadian producers.He labels it a short-term solution, with import permits distributed weekly and reviewed after four weeks; if supply and prices recover and stabilize, permits could be reduced or ended, while if they have not yet stabilized, the program could continue until no longer needed. Charlebois says a policy allowing such action already exists.Under Subsection 8.3(3) of the Export and Import Permits Act, the Minister of Foreign Affairs can "issue supplemental import permits beyond the normal access quantity."."The agriculture minister can support the intervention, but Global Affairs Canada administers the permits."CFC should also simultaneously provide increased domestic allocation so farmers and processors can deliver the increased volume consumers want.Charlebois adds that Canada should not abolish the old supply management system overnight, instead it should update the system to "live up to its original purpose."This is the path forward, he adds, "Canadian production first, temporary imports when Canadian supply fails, and automatic intervention before scarcity becomes a crisis."
