With only two days until the Ontario Election, it appears Premier Doug Ford is within range of winning another majority government.."He's not running against perfect, or else he'd be in trouble. Enough Ontarians believe he is the better option," said Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research..According to recent polling by CBC News Poll Tracker, which aggregates polling from nearly a dozen public polls, Ford is sitting at 37.9% in the polls, followed by Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca at 26.9%, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath at 23%, and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner at 6.7%. .The other political parties, which include the Ontario Party's Derek Sloan and the New Blue Party of Ontario's Jim Karahalios, are at a combined 5.5% in the polls..Nanos, who has been in the polling business for more than two decades, said his experience taught him voters tend to make choices "in terms of risk." For that reason, Ford is the more popular option.."Polling suggests he is the most trusted on jobs, and managing the economy. In a time when the cost of living us up, there might be higher interest rates and a recession Ford is looking good on a lot of those economic issues," Nanos said..Nanos added while Ford's handling of pandemic was not perfect, he acted pragmatically. Nanos said some would have expected Ford to deal with COVID-19 in a manner similar to Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, "but he went down different path," that ultimately worked for him..While Del Duca is unlikely to win the election, Nanos said he has been running a "safe, no risk" campaign that suggests he is more concerned about the next election.."His short term objective is to became leader and then challenge the Progressive Conservatives during next election. By then, Ford will have been in power for eight years and Ontarians would have appetite for change," Nanos said..Nanos said at this point, the Liberal's main objective is to obtain more seats than the NDP. "So Del Duca can't make mistakes and he's been appealing to soft New Democrat voters who might see the Liberals as the only chance at the local level to challenge the Conservatives.".The leadership debate on May 16 "didn't change ballot preferences," but Nanos said it was a big help for Schreiner and the Green Party. "He was only one whose performance had positive impact on brand. For others, it was a wash.".However, Nanos said this hasn't translated into more support for the Greens. "In the last election they had 5% support, they began this one with 4%, and now they're at 6%. So not much has changed for them."
