TORONTO — Premier Doug Ford is expected to trigger three provincial byelections on Aug. 5 for Sept. 3 votes, just as a new poll shows the Ontario Liberals leading the Progressive Conservatives by five points and Ford’s personal approval rating hitting a low of 24%.The contests will fill vacancies in Scarborough Southwest, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, and York-Simcoe left by former NDP MPP Doly Begum and Progressive Conservative ministers Neil Lumsden and Caroline Mulroney.A Liaison Strategies survey of 1,000 Ontarians conducted July 20-21, 2026, found the Liberals at 38% support among decided and leaning voters, the PCs at 33%, the NDP at 24%, and the Greens at 2%. Ford’s approval sits at just 24%, with 72% disapproving — the lowest level recorded in the firm’s tracker.“Ford’s personal numbers are the bigger problem,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. “Those numbers are landing in the middle of an expense scandal… stories about MPPs billing taxpayers for Toronto hotel rooms are exactly the kind of thing that reinforces a bad frame.”.In Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, once an NDP stronghold until CFL legend Lumsden won it in 2022, the Liberals have nominated Heino Doessing, who finished second there in the last general election. The NDP plans to nominate soon in a bid to reclaim the seat.York-Simcoe, one of the safest PC ridings in Ontario, will see East Gwillimbury town councillor Susan Lahey as the Progressive Conservative candidate after an appointment recommended by Mulroney. The Liberals are running Georgina and York Region councillor Naomi Davison.Scarborough Southwest is expected to be the most competitive race. The PCs selected family physician Dr. Noor Tarun, who owns six medical clinics and was the federal Conservative candidate in the riding in 2025. The NDP is fielding tenant advocate Fatima Shaban, while the Liberals nominated Ahsanul Hafiz, owner of 30 Domino’s pizza outlets. The Green candidate is former municipal civil servant Mark Bekkering.Begum, who defected from the NDP to win the federal Liberal nomination and the April byelection in the same riding, has not said whether she will campaign for the provincial Liberal candidate..Ford accepts resignation of Tourism Minister Cho over Toronto hotel expenses.Opposition parties believe the ongoing hotel expenses controversy — which already cost MPP Stan Cho his cabinet post — and fallout from the government’s private jet purchase-and-sale debacle could hurt the Tories at the ballot box.Currently the Progressive Conservatives hold 78 seats in the 124-member legislature. The NDP has 26, the Liberals 14, the Greens two, and there are two Independents.The byelections will serve as the first major electoral test for Ford’s government since the 2025 general election, arriving as voters signal growing dissatisfaction with both the direction of the province and the premier’s performance.
