TORONTO — Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have reclaimed the lead in a new Liaison Strategies poll, with Premier Doug Ford’s personal approval rating climbing sharply as the province remains at the centre of the Canada-U.S. trade fight.The survey of 1,500 Ontarians, conducted Aug. 23–24, puts the PCs at 39% support among decided and leaning voters. That places them four points ahead of the Ontario Liberals at 35%, with the NDP at 20%, other parties at 3%, and the Greens at 2%. The margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.Ford’s approval rating rose from 24% in July to 36%. Still, 61% of respondents say they disapprove of his performance as premier.Only 27% believe Ontario is heading in the right direction, while 72% say the province is on the wrong track — numbers essentially unchanged from July..“This is a very different Ontario race than the one we saw in July,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. “The obvious context is the trade war. This poll was in field right as the latest U.S. tariffs took effect and as Ford and Trump turned the fight into something personal.”Valentin cautioned against reading the rebound as a full recovery. “The PCs have reclaimed the lead, but that should not be mistaken for a clean bill of political health for Ford. His approval has improved sharply… but 61% still disapprove of the job he is doing as Premier. In other words, Ford is much less damaged than he was a month ago, but he is still deeply underwater. The party is in a better place than the Premier personally.”The Liberals lead in Toronto 44%–29%. The PCs lead the 905 region 41%–38% and are strongest in South Central Ontario at 47%, the North at 42%, and Southwestern Ontario at 42%. A clear gender divide appears: Liberals lead among women 41%–33%, while the PCs lead among men 46%–30%.Federally, Ontario remains a Liberal province in this poll, with the Liberals leading the Conservatives 48%–36% among decided and leaning voters..The poll also tested measures Ford has urged Ottawa to consider. Ontarians broadly back visible retaliation, with 83% supporting matching U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar, 85% supporting keeping American alcohol out of LCBO stores, and 72% supporting an additional charge on electricity exported to the United States.Support softens when economic costs at home are considered. Forty-two % say governments should take stronger measures even if they create additional economic costs in Ontario, 35% want equal weight on pressure and economic risk, and 18% want measures limited to reduce costs. Federal Conservative voters are the most resistant to the harder options.When asked what governments should prioritize, additional tariffs ranked first at 32%, followed by financial support for affected workers and businesses at 17%, restricting electricity or critical-mineral exports at 16%, and the alcohol ban at 15%. Restricting electricity or critical-mineral exports was identified as the most concerning option by 24% of respondents.The results reverse a July Liaison survey that had the Liberals ahead and Ford’s approval at a tracker low of 24% amid a hotel-expense controversy involving Progressive Conservative MPPs.Ford has since softened some of his personal rhetoric toward U.S. President Donald Trump while continuing to urge a “tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar” response and expanded support for Ontario businesses hit by the duties.
