Global extreme climate change model debunked as 'implausible' in new climate study

CALGARY — A new scientific paper has debunked one of the most widely used predicted climate change scenarios.The recently published paper in Geoscientific Model Development, says the "RCP 8.5" (or SSP5-8.5) climate scenario, a globally used model for predicting climate warming, contains extreme outcomes which are "implausible," based on climate trends already observed during the 2020 to 2030 period. The international committee of climate scientists will now refer to the new model, used as the basis for assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations' body for assessing climate change. As the Food Professor or Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, points out on his Substack, the old framework suggested an explosion in coal consumption, high fossil fuel dependence, and emission predictions that over time diverged greatly from economic and technological realities. .Charlebois highlights some of the world's leading climate scientists are now acknowledging "humanity is unlikely to follow the catastrophic path that dominated climate communication for much of the last decade."Canada is a big user of the old model, and as recently as February, the feds' 2025 Climate-Related Financial Risk Management report, cited the tool being used by five different departments — including Natural Resources Canada.It is still publicly accessible on the feds' website, displaying the model's predictions of climate warming conditions on a map.A policy analyst, Roger Pielke, Jr, commented on the matter in an article for the think tank the American Enterprise Institute, stating the new paper admits the old model " describe[s] impossible futures.".Reported by PR Newswire, Friends of Science (FOS), a non-profit composed of retired scientists which offers insights on climate science, adds the old climate scenario was also used in the feds' 2019 Canada's Changing Climate (CCCR2019) report."The report used data from, '1948 and 2016, highlighting that Canada has been warming at roughly double the global mean rate,'" wrote FOS."Subsequently, Canada proclaimed a climate emergency on June 18, 2019, and implemented a number of stringent emissions reductions measures."The feds use of this climate model has harsh consequences on essentials in Canada — including the price of food. ."Even after Ottawa effectively zeroed out the consumer carbon levy on fuels in 2025, the industrial carbon pricing regime remains firmly in place and continues to rise, reaching $110 per tonne this year," stated Charlebois.He says this will have a domino effect on almost every category of the food manufacturing economy, including "fertilizer production, trucking, warehousing, refrigeration, food processing, packaging, greenhouse operations, grain drying, and cold-chain logistics."This is not just an expense issue either — it's also a competition issue..Canada's agri-food industry competes on a global stage, and when domestic costs outpace international competitors due to Canada's carbon-pricing, investment will shift from Canadian to cheaper international options. This incentivizes imports to increase, while domestic product consumption decreases. And as Canadians already know, food affordability is the number one concern for households, as a recent Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab survey reflects. Charlebois claims the news debunking the extreme climate change model shows the science's nuance — yet Canadian climate policies remain rigid.."...policy should be proportional to realistic risks, not permanently anchored to worst-case scenarios that scientists themselves are now reassessing," Charlebois said.He suggests the feds should prioritize innovation, as "efficiency reduces waste.""Punishing domestic production does not."

Global extreme climate change model debunked as 'implausible' in new climate study

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