Global oil and gas fields are seeing output fall faster than ever, with the shift to shale and deep offshore resources forcing companies to work harder just to maintain current production, according to a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report.The analysis, covering roughly 15,000 oil and gas fields worldwide, shows that nearly 90% of upstream spending is now used simply to offset declines at existing fields rather than meet rising demand. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that without continued investment, the world would lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined oil production each year.Decline rates vary dramatically depending on geography and field type. .Onshore supergiant Middle East fields fall less than 2% annually, while smaller offshore fields in Europe lose more than 15% a year. Tight oil and shale gas face the steepest losses, with output dropping more than 35% in one year and a further 15% in the second year without intervention.In 2010, halting upstream investment would have cut oil supply by just under 4 million barrels per day. Today that figure has risen to 5.5 million barrels per day, while natural gas declines have jumped from 180 billion cubic metres per year to 270 bcm.The report warns that keeping global oil and gas production flat would require developing more than 45 million barrels per day of oil and nearly 2,000 bcm of gas from new conventional fields by 2050 — equivalent to adding the combined output of the world’s top three producers. These numbers could be reduced if overall demand falls..The IEA also noted that bringing new fields online is a slow process, taking nearly 20 years on average from exploration licence to first production, including a decade for discovery and another decade for appraisal, approval, and construction.Birol said the accelerating declines underscore the need for careful attention to market balances, energy security, and emissions as governments and companies plan future investments.
