If political precedent and conventional strategy is any indication, the Liberal reign of error is about to end.For months now, the Conservative Party has polled with such dominance that they seem inevitably headed to a super majority. It is not conceivable that any turnaround in Liberal policy nor any scandal on the part of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would change anything enough to make a difference.The problem however, is that every other party knows this and that is enough for them to keep this unpopular minority government going. Why would the NDP trigger an election when it means the end of their jobs? Regardless, their agreement with the Liberals on confidence and budgetary matters seems ready to expire.NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh just announced he would no longer support carbon tax increases. That's good. Even so, the question to Singh must be "Why now?" Affordability pressures and the scheduled increase are old news, so why only announce opposition after the latest increase on April 1?The ongoing pockets of protests across Canada have little to do with this. More relevant is the fact the NDP has little to fight for in staying with the Liberals and enough money to fight a campaign. It can boast about expanded government programs for dental care, pharmacare and child care and has no frontiers left except a universal basic income that Canadians are unready to accept.Meanwhile, for the first time since the 2021 election, the NDP has enough money in its bank account to run a decent campaign. In February of 2024, the NDP announced it had finally paid off its $22 million debt and was now building its election kitty.Prime Minister Trudeau, who has ruled for an unprecedented two straight terms without a plurality of the popular vote, tried to keep his coalition in line by delaying a hypothetical 2025 election date. The ostensible reason was to not interfere with Diwali, but it also allowed a few more MPs to qualify for pensions if they keep their seats that long.The Liberal ploy won't work because he faces other electoral realities that minority governments tend not to escape.Historically, Canadian minority governments only last 18 months, but this one has lasted two-and-a-half years. That has only one precedent, the final minority term of the Harper Conservatives that ended in 2011.In the fall of 2010, I had a conversation with a political strategist who explained in clear terms why there would either be an election that fall or the following spring. The normal length of minority terms was one reason, and the hypothetical expiry of the four-year term in Fall 2012 was another reason. Neither the previous spring nor Fall 2011 would be a good option. It is a well-established custom that federal governments don't trigger elections that overlap provincial campaigns and for that very reason Fall 2011 was off. However, any party that triggered an election in spring 2012 would automatically disadvantage itself. The electorate, weary of a succession of elections in 2004, 2006 and 2008, would ask "Why now?" and turn on any party that ended the government six months early.The logic made sense, so I waited with anticipation to see what would happen. As it went, no election was held in Fall 2010, which left spring 2011 as the inevitable time. I watched with amusement as the other parties triggered an election for weak reasons.In 2011, Elections Canada laid charges against the Conservative Party, alleging contraventions of the Canada Elections Act five years earlier. This prompted the Bloc Québécois to announce its intention to vote against the budget, unless it contained numerous changes including $2 billion in compensation to Quebec for harmonizing PST and GST and funding for a new NHL arena in Quebec City.On March 9 2011, Speaker of the House of Commons Liberal Peter Milliken ruled that cabinet minister Bev Oda separately and the cabinet itself could both be in contempt of Parliament, the latter for its ongoing refusal to meet opposition requests for details of proposed bills and their cost estimates. Milliken directed both matters to committee and set as the deadline for its report March 21 2011, one day before the budget was to be tabled. The committee found the government to be in contempt of Parliament.MPs voted on the matter in partisan fashion, so Opposition Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff tabled a motion of no confidence. On March 25 2011, the vote passed 156 to 145, triggering the May 2 election.These are minor reasons to insist on a vote compared to the litany of scandals and corrosive policies of the Trudeau Liberal government. Such is the theatre that often accompanies parties vying for power. And this story is about to play itself out again and for all the same reasons.This fall, BC, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick will go to the polls, so the fall is out. So is next winter. Although the Harper Conservatives got their first election victory January 23 2006, winter and the Christmas season are awful times to campaign in.Summer is not great either. The 2015 election campaign started August 2 and was the longest in years. It seems the Conservatives hoped they could outspend Trudeau over a long election and give the Liberal leader enough time to incriminate himself over a long campaign. Instead, his early gaffes were forgotten in a summer when no one paid attention and he hit his stride when people started to pay attention.All this to say, there has to be an election this spring. The fall is out and Spring 2025 will be only six months before the term would end anyway. Did Jagmeet Singh have a sudden epiphany on the carbon tax? No.Despite Trudeau's Hail Mary pass on delaying an election, the Liberals seem to have expected to go to the polls this spring as well. Their posts to Twitter ("X") have been more pointed at Conservatives in the past few months and they've announced more money for CBC and mainstream media.Don't be surprised if tomorrow's budget will be "unacceptable" to non-Liberal MPs and a spring election ensues. The history that brought the Conservatives a majority in 2011 is about to repeat itself.
If political precedent and conventional strategy is any indication, the Liberal reign of error is about to end.For months now, the Conservative Party has polled with such dominance that they seem inevitably headed to a super majority. It is not conceivable that any turnaround in Liberal policy nor any scandal on the part of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would change anything enough to make a difference.The problem however, is that every other party knows this and that is enough for them to keep this unpopular minority government going. Why would the NDP trigger an election when it means the end of their jobs? Regardless, their agreement with the Liberals on confidence and budgetary matters seems ready to expire.NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh just announced he would no longer support carbon tax increases. That's good. Even so, the question to Singh must be "Why now?" Affordability pressures and the scheduled increase are old news, so why only announce opposition after the latest increase on April 1?The ongoing pockets of protests across Canada have little to do with this. More relevant is the fact the NDP has little to fight for in staying with the Liberals and enough money to fight a campaign. It can boast about expanded government programs for dental care, pharmacare and child care and has no frontiers left except a universal basic income that Canadians are unready to accept.Meanwhile, for the first time since the 2021 election, the NDP has enough money in its bank account to run a decent campaign. In February of 2024, the NDP announced it had finally paid off its $22 million debt and was now building its election kitty.Prime Minister Trudeau, who has ruled for an unprecedented two straight terms without a plurality of the popular vote, tried to keep his coalition in line by delaying a hypothetical 2025 election date. The ostensible reason was to not interfere with Diwali, but it also allowed a few more MPs to qualify for pensions if they keep their seats that long.The Liberal ploy won't work because he faces other electoral realities that minority governments tend not to escape.Historically, Canadian minority governments only last 18 months, but this one has lasted two-and-a-half years. That has only one precedent, the final minority term of the Harper Conservatives that ended in 2011.In the fall of 2010, I had a conversation with a political strategist who explained in clear terms why there would either be an election that fall or the following spring. The normal length of minority terms was one reason, and the hypothetical expiry of the four-year term in Fall 2012 was another reason. Neither the previous spring nor Fall 2011 would be a good option. It is a well-established custom that federal governments don't trigger elections that overlap provincial campaigns and for that very reason Fall 2011 was off. However, any party that triggered an election in spring 2012 would automatically disadvantage itself. The electorate, weary of a succession of elections in 2004, 2006 and 2008, would ask "Why now?" and turn on any party that ended the government six months early.The logic made sense, so I waited with anticipation to see what would happen. As it went, no election was held in Fall 2010, which left spring 2011 as the inevitable time. I watched with amusement as the other parties triggered an election for weak reasons.In 2011, Elections Canada laid charges against the Conservative Party, alleging contraventions of the Canada Elections Act five years earlier. This prompted the Bloc Québécois to announce its intention to vote against the budget, unless it contained numerous changes including $2 billion in compensation to Quebec for harmonizing PST and GST and funding for a new NHL arena in Quebec City.On March 9 2011, Speaker of the House of Commons Liberal Peter Milliken ruled that cabinet minister Bev Oda separately and the cabinet itself could both be in contempt of Parliament, the latter for its ongoing refusal to meet opposition requests for details of proposed bills and their cost estimates. Milliken directed both matters to committee and set as the deadline for its report March 21 2011, one day before the budget was to be tabled. The committee found the government to be in contempt of Parliament.MPs voted on the matter in partisan fashion, so Opposition Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff tabled a motion of no confidence. On March 25 2011, the vote passed 156 to 145, triggering the May 2 election.These are minor reasons to insist on a vote compared to the litany of scandals and corrosive policies of the Trudeau Liberal government. Such is the theatre that often accompanies parties vying for power. And this story is about to play itself out again and for all the same reasons.This fall, BC, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick will go to the polls, so the fall is out. So is next winter. Although the Harper Conservatives got their first election victory January 23 2006, winter and the Christmas season are awful times to campaign in.Summer is not great either. The 2015 election campaign started August 2 and was the longest in years. It seems the Conservatives hoped they could outspend Trudeau over a long election and give the Liberal leader enough time to incriminate himself over a long campaign. Instead, his early gaffes were forgotten in a summer when no one paid attention and he hit his stride when people started to pay attention.All this to say, there has to be an election this spring. The fall is out and Spring 2025 will be only six months before the term would end anyway. Did Jagmeet Singh have a sudden epiphany on the carbon tax? No.Despite Trudeau's Hail Mary pass on delaying an election, the Liberals seem to have expected to go to the polls this spring as well. Their posts to Twitter ("X") have been more pointed at Conservatives in the past few months and they've announced more money for CBC and mainstream media.Don't be surprised if tomorrow's budget will be "unacceptable" to non-Liberal MPs and a spring election ensues. The history that brought the Conservatives a majority in 2011 is about to repeat itself.
