Calgary lawyer Jeff Rath says the UCP’s win in Monday’s Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills byelection wasn’t a defeat for the Alberta independence movement.Rather, it was a “massive endorsement of (Premier Danielle) Smith’s popularity,” and a victory for the movement, Rath told the Western Standard, adding that a political party won’t lead the way to independence.Rath argues the majority of the UCP supports independence.“You know the largest independence party in Alberta won that byelection, right?” Rath said.“The name of that party is the UCP.”.WATCH: Alberta independence group unveils its referendum question.Rath, a longtime advocate for Alberta independence and leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), said many of the voters who backed Republican Party of Alberta leader Cam Davies were not rejecting the UCP’s message, but rather expressing frustration with how Smith handled the nomination process.“A lot of the people that were voting for Cam Davies, you know, were a protest vote… against Danielle Smith not allowing a nomination,” he said.“There’s no two ways about it, because within the riding… a lot of Cam Davies’ vote, and a lot of the people I know in that riding that have had Cam Davies signs on their farms and ranches, were as much a protest to Danielle Smith selecting the nominee rather than letting them have a nomination.”Rath said that even strong pro-independence voters backed UCP candidate Tara Sawyer to avoid splitting the vote and helping the NDP.“They came out and they voted for the UCP candidate because they don't want to split the vote. They don't want the NDP in power. Even all the strong UCP people that support independence voted UCP. No surprise,” said Rath.He also downplayed Davies’ appeal within the movement itself.“Cam Davies, let’s face it, he’s kind of a fringe political figure who doesn't understand how alienating the term Republican Party is to Canadian voters or Alberta voters,” said Rath.“Because it speaks too much to the whole 51st state thing. When, even within the independence movement in Alberta, you know the 51st Staters are the minority.”.UCP fends off independence party, Nenshi lands seat.According to Rath, the path to independence now runs through the UCP itself.“We don’t need (an independence party). We control the UCP,” he said.“Why do we need an independence party? We’re the majority of the UCP now.”A recent Angus Reid poll found that 65% of UCP voters said they would at least consider voting “yes” in a future referendum on Alberta separation. Among all Albertans, the same poll found support for independence at 36%, with only 19% saying they would “definitely vote yes.”Rath believes the 65% figure has now climbed even higher.“The support for independence amongst the UCP membership is now easily over 70%,” he said.Rath took aim at the UCP leadership for allegedly trying to block debate on independence at the party’s upcoming AGM.“She doesn’t want any questions with regard to independence referendums or anything in support of independence… to be voted on by resolution of this year’s Annual General Meeting,” he said.“Just because (Smith) hasn’t quite gotten her head around it. But, I mean, she’s going to have to. Every week she says, ‘I want Team Canada.’ How long is she going to continue to play on a team while her own players are constantly beating her up?”.FILDEBRANDT: UCP win in Olds is an ambiguous result for Alberta independence.Rath also criticized plans to put multiple issues on the ballot in Alberta’s anticipated 2026 referendum.“The only question that should be on the ballot is independence, because everything else flows from it,” he said.“If we have independence, a pension will follow. We have independence, policing will follow. Everything is subsumed within independence.”He said splitting up the issues is a tactic to undercut a clear result.“By throwing all these other questions out there… it just leads it to the Government of Canada or (Smith) to say, ‘Oh, well, see, a majority were in favour of independence, but, you know, they voted against pensions.’”“Muddying the waters,” added Rath.“There needs to be a clear question on a standalone ballot that people can focus on. And we can have a campaign that focuses on that one issue.”
