The Alberta United Conservative Party would receive 52% of the vote if an election were held now, according to a Friday poll conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research..This poll said the Alberta NDP would come in second place (44%). .There is a four-way tie for third place with the Alberta Liberals, the Alberta Party, the Greens, and the Independence Party of Alberta (1%). .This shift in the poll stems from people developing a negative view of Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley. The poll said the same number of people approve and disapprove of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Notley (42% to 47%). .While women favoured Notley during the campaign, now her approval and disapproval rating are almost even among them (45% to 44%). That's because she's been fear mongering about what Smith will do if re-elected, the poll showed..The poll found the UCP are leading in Calgary (49%). It said the Alberta NDP are close behind in second place (46%). .Since Calgary is the main battleground for the election, the two parties prioritized having their events in the city because the NDP needs to flip multiple seats to win a majority government. .Despite the UCP having a decent lead overall, the poll said the NDP is dominating in Edmonton (57% to 41%). In the 2019 election, the NDP held onto every seat in Edmonton except one. .That seat is Edmonton-South West, where UCP candidate Kaycee Madu is facing a tough challenge from his NDP rival Nathan Ip. Madu is his party’s best hope at having any blue in Edmonton. .The UCP continues to lead in the rest of Alberta (66% to 29%). The NDP has been working to flip a few close races in the rest of Alberta such as Banff-Kananaskis and Lethbridge-East. .Meanwhile, the NDP have a modest lead over the UCP in Calgary, according to a poll conducted by ThinkHQ Public Affairs. .“We knew Calgary, with 26 seats up for grabs, would be the battleground for this election,” said ThinkHQ President Marc Henry. .“The NDP will likely pick up seats in the city; how many is a little tougher to gauge.”.The poll said the NDP has a slight lead in the campaign’s dying days with 49%. It noted the UCP would come in second place (43%). .One-tenth of voters remain undecided. This was followed by the Alberta Party (6%) and other (3%). .The NDP enjoys a more notable lead over the UCP north of the river, but the opposite is true in the south. A handful of seats in northern Calgary are projected to flip to the NDP. .The two parties are even in new/suburban and established communities, while the NDP has a 25-point lead in the inner city. While most of Calgary went UCP in 2019, two of the seats the NDP won were in the downtown core. .The UCP retains 82% of their voters from 2019, while 15% plan to vote for the NDP and 3% are looking at other options. In contrast, the NDP is retaining 97% of its 2019 vote. .The UCP would win the popular vote with 46% if an election happened now, according to a poll conducted by Mainstreet Research. .While the UCP is in front, the NDP is not too far behind (42%), according to the poll. .After the NDP would be undecided voters (7%). This was followed by the Alberta Party (2%) and the Greens, Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta (WIPA), and other (1%). .Among decided voters, the UCP’s lead increases (49%). The NDP gains some more support (45%). .Third place would go to the Alberta Party and Greens (2%). After those parties would be WIPA and other (1%). .When it comes to which leader won the debate, 39% said it was Smith. One-quarter believed Notley was the winner. .One-fifth do not know, and 16% remain undecided. These percentages mirror what many columnists said about the debate. .Smith and Notley went toe-to-toe in the Alberta Leaders’ Debate on May 18, with the pair landing blows, but no knockout punches..READ MORE: Smith says Notley won't run on her record, it was an 'absolute disaster'.Opening remarks had a 1-minute time limit, then 10 questions were asked with a limited response of 45 seconds. The order to speak first was a random draw, with Smith winning..“This election number comes down to a choice between the UCP government that lowers taxes, balanced the budget, and returned Alberta to its place as the economic powerhouse of Canada, or we could choose to go backward with the same failed NDP policies that hike taxes, drove out jobs and investment, and almost bankrupted our province,” she said. .Smith’s approval rating is even among voters (48% to 48%). There are 4% who remain undecided. .While Notley started off with a higher approval rating than Smith, she has dropped into negative territory (47% to 50%). Another 3% do not know how they feel. .These polls were conducted using various methods over the last few weeks with different sample sizes. The margin of errors vary, but they're accurate 19 times out of 20.
