A new Nanos Research tracking poll shows the Liberals opening a lead over the Conservatives following the federal budget, while Liberal leader Mark Carney holds a wide advantage over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in preferred prime minister numbers.The survey, based on a four week rolling sample ending November 21 and released November 25, puts the Liberals at 41.9% support among decided voters compared with 37.2% for the Conservatives.The NDP sits at 9.1%, the Bloc Québécois at 7.0%, the Greens at 2.7% and the People’s Party at 1.6%. The poll is based on interviews with 1,053 adults across Canada by landline and cellphone and is accurate to within ±3.0 points 19 times out of 20..Leadership numbers show an even wider gap. Carney is the top choice for prime minister with 52.6% support, more than double Poilievre at 25.9%. Bloc leader Yves François Blanchet sits at 5.4%, NDP leader Don Davies at 4.3%, Green leader Elizabeth May at 1.8% and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier at 1.1%. About 9% of respondents say they are unsure whom they prefer.Nanos also measures the pool of voters who say they would consider supporting each party.On that measure the Liberals remain ahead with 45.8% saying they would consider voting Liberal. 40.6% say they would consider voting Conservative and 38.7% would consider the NDP. 31.7% say they would consider the Greens while 42.2% of Quebec respondents would consider the Bloc and 9.4% nationally would consider the People’s Party..On the question of which national issue matters most inflation remains the top concern at 19.1%. Healthcare follows at 14.0% then jobs and the economy at 8.6%. Housing and affordability register at 8.0% followed by immigration at 4.9% debt and deficit at 4.5% and the environment also at 4.5%.Smaller numbers point to crime education foreign policy and relations with the United States. Long term trend lines show inflation rising sharply in recent years while healthcare and economic concerns have fluctuated.Respondents were also asked whether party leaders have the qualities of a good political leader. Just over half say the NDP leader has those qualities and just under half say the same of the Liberal leader. Smaller proportions believe Poilievre Blanchet May or Bernier fit that description although the Bloc leader scores more strongly within Quebec..These results feed into the Nanos Party Power Index which blends vote intention leadership impressions preferred prime minister and willingness to consider each party. The Liberals score 62.7 on the index followed by the Conservatives at 44.6 the Bloc at 36.3 (Quebec only) the NDP at 35.5 the Greens at 28.5 and the People’s Party at 21.2. Scores above 50 indicate relative brand strength at the moment.While the poll indicates a post budget boost for the Liberals and a leadership advantage for Carney the numbers reflect opinion during the survey period rather than a prediction of the next federal election.
