Has the wounded bear, turned on Israel?.It would appear so, or maybe not. Hard to say, at this point..But one thing is for sure, Russia fired a missile from an S-300 air defense system at Israeli jets over Syria — a move that a senior Israeli defense source described as a “very strange and worrying” act..The incident could force the vaunted Israeli Air Force to change its mode of operation, when striking targets in Syria, Breaking Defense reported..First reported by Israel’s Ch13, the missile attack happened following a strike into Syria, when Israeli war planes were returning..While it is unclear what jets were used in the operation, Israeli F-15s, F-16s and F-35s have all been used previously for strikes into Syria..Though no Israeli planes were damaged, it represents the first time the Russians have activated their air defense system against Israeli jets, Breaking Defense reported..Previously, Russia and Israel have operated under a tacit agreement that allows Israel to conduct strikes it feels are in its national interest as long as they do not target Russian military units inside Syria..Since 2015, IDF jets have conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian-related targets in Syria without any Russian reaction..Russia, a close ally of Syria’s Bashar Assad, has forces based and operating in Syria..Beyond providing Syria with its air defences, Moscow also maintains state-of-the-art S-400 air defence systems to protect its own assets in Syria..Military analysts suspect that the S-300 launch was a retaliatory signal over Israel's political support for Ukraine, which had to happen following intense pressure from the White House.. S-300 missilesS-300 missiles .Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign assistance since the Second World War, according to a Congressional Research Service report..In 2016, the US and Israeli governments signed their third 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on military aid, covering 2019 to 2028..Under the terms of the MOU, the US pledged to provide — subject to congressional appropriation — $38 billion in military aid ($33 billion in Foreign Military Financing grants plus $5 billion in missile defense appropriations) to Israel..Israel is also the first international operator of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the DOD's fifth-generation stealth aircraft. To date, Israel has purchased 50 F-35s in three separate contracts funded with US assistance, and has taken delivery of 30..For 2022, the Biden Administration requested $3.3 billion in FMF for Israel and $500 million in missile defense aid to mark the fourth year of the MOU..Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Israel cited the need to stay in the Kremlin's good books, in part because of the need to stop Hezbollah from smuggling weapons into Lebanon..Amos Gilead, a retired IDF general officer who served, among other roles, as head of the Military intelligence Research Division, also suggested to Breaking Defense the use of the S-300 may have been a warning “to demonstrate Moscow is not pleased with some of the Israeli operations in Syria.”.While there is a hotline between Israel and Russia to communicate on Syrian issues, Breaking Defense has learned no warning was given before the Russian launch..Without specifically mentioning the incident, Defence Minister Benny Gantz said Israel would not be deterred and vowed to prevent Iran from transferring “advanced capabilities” to other entities in Syria, The Times of Israel reported..“The State of Israel will continue to act against any enemy that threatens it, and prevent the transfer of advanced capabilities from Iran that endanger the citizens of Israel and harm the stability of the entire region,” Gantz said during a visit to the military’s Northern Command..Israel is revisiting its strategy for attacking targets in Syria while it attempts to gather the full picture of what message Russia was trying to send..One option being considered is to switch to more stand-off weapons and avoid close-in operations that would put jets squarely in the S-300 range. A bigger question is how Israel would handle another such launch from Russian forces, Breaking Defense reported..“If this is a one-time incident, that is one thing,” said the senior defence source. “If this is a change in Russian policy, the Israeli government will have to decide: when a Russian battery launches, will Israel attack it? This is a heavy and serious” question..The S-300 launch comes at a time when Israel is accelerating its campaign against Iranian targets in Syria, and as Russian forces are being shifted out of Syria to support the faltering campaign in Ukraine..There is a growing consensus that Russia’s conventional forces have proven to be a paper bear, defeated by Ukrainians armed with older equipment, and plagued by a series of major logistical and morale challenges, Breaking Defense reported..Russia's much vaunted hypersonic missiles are also "underperforming," US military officials said, citing overall inaccuracy..It's estimated Russia fired 1,500 missiles since the Feb. 24 invasion targeted Ukrainian civilians, the largest employment of missile systems since the Second World War..With this heightening of geopolitical tensions, sources say the May 13 strike may have been a signal to Israel that its strike had gone too far in Moscow’s view. In other words, a classic shot across the bow, Paul Iddon reported in Forbes magazine..Russia likely wants Israel to at least limit its attacks in certain parts of the country, particularly the western regime-controlled areas where the Russian military presence and bases in Syria are primarily concentrated, Forbes reported..Masyaf, the site of the May 13 strike, is, as Stratfor already noted, “near Syria’s Latakia province, which hosts Russia’s air and naval bases and is normally off-limits to Israeli strikes, bringing the Israeli raid close to Moscow’s previous red lines.”. Attack on Masyaf, before and afterAttack on Masyaf, before and after .As part of the stepped-up campaign against targets in Syria, Israel has begun using “bunker buster” weapons to get at new facilities being built underground, sources told Breaking Defense..Images made by an Israeli spy satellite show the heavy damage caused to the Iranian-controlled facility in Masyaf, suggesting the use of GBU-28 bombs..Russia delivered Syria those S-300s for the first time in 2018, shortly after an incident involving Israel, Forbes reported..In September of that year, during an Israeli strike in the western province of Latakia, a vintage Syrian S-200 fired at the Israeli jets, but hit a Russian Il-20 plane instead, killing all 15 of its crew..Moscow blamed Israel for the incident, charging the Israeli jets knowingly and purposely used the Russian plane as cover from Syrian air defenses, imperiling the Russian service members aboard..The S-300 was often described as a potential “game-changing” system since it could, in addition to closing off large parts of Syrian airspace, target Israeli jets operating over Lebanon or potentially even in northern Israeli airspace, Forbes reported..Furthermore, if Russia has given full control over the S-300s to Syria, that could prove to be a dangerous gamble..Seeing those batteries go up in flames after Russia’s much-hyped delivery would be an embarrassment for Moscow, especially after its military faced humiliating defeats and losses in Ukraine..Without question, if the Syrians manage to shoot down an Israeli jet, Israel would launch an overwhelming retaliation that would likely target all its S-300s, along with its Pantsir-S1s and Buk-M2s..While Israel undoubtedly doesn’t want a military confrontation, Moscow certainly cannot afford one, especially at a time when its ability to resupply its forces in Syria has been severely constrained after Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention, Forbes reported..Only two ships passed from the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits to supply the Russian military in Syria in April..The incident comes amid a deterioration in relations between the two countries over the Ukraine invasion, as Israel has increased its criticism of the human rights violations committed by Russian forces in Ukraine, The Defense Post reported..Jerusalem has also registered its displeasure over growing antisemitism in Russia, including recent comments by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in which he claimed that Adolf Hitler “was part Jewish.”
