Russian President Vladimir Putin openly boasted that his hypersonic Kinzhal missile, was “invincible.”.So be afraid, very afraid..But all that menacing talk, and the missile, came down to earth when Ukrainian forces would shock the world, using a Patriot — invented in the 1970s — to shoot it down on May 4, 2023..Russia’s state news agency tried to deny this claim by arguing the shootdown was a fake report. Yet just 12 days afterward, Ukraine shot down six Kinzhals that Russia fired in an assault on Kyiv..How was this done?.New software can can improve older systems, Lockheed CEO James Taiclet told Defense One, citing the Patriot missiles recently sent to Ukraine. .It is also a lesson learned by the US Department of Defence (DoD), when it comes to innovation and military budgets. .That is, getting away from big, expensive programs that produce overly sophisticated weapons and moving toward buying arms faster and more cheaply..The DoD is discovering how new software can increase the value of things it already has. .But the Pentagon still has work to do in setting universal standards and prioritizing low-cost, modular-software-based approaches to making weapons, they said during a House Armed Services subcommittee hearing. .Taiclet said the shootdown shows how software upgrades can enable an existing system "to deal with a more advanced threat using software and advanced networking technologies before you can build a new hardware system.”. The US Patriot Missile systemThe US Patriot Missile system .At a time when the United States is spending billions of dollars on new satellites to track highly maneuverable missiles, Ukraine’s Patriot shows the Pentagon already has a hypersonic defence in a crude form..“There'll be a cat-and-mouse game that will continue here, because the more sophisticated the maneuvering and the final terminal stage of the missile can go, the tougher it's going to be to hit,” said Taiclet..“But we're actually in the cat-mouse game on hypersonic defence already. And I would say that is a significant deterrent.”.According to the Brookings Institution, hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles (HGVs and HCMs), are, indeed, more difficult to intercept than ballistic missiles using current missile defences..However, existing missile defences can intercept missiles travelling far faster than HGVs or HCMs, and could be adapted to intercept hypersonic missiles as well..A satellite constellation to track HGVs is planned to be in orbit by 2025. Moreover, as of 2022, the US Aegis sea-based terminal defence system already had a nascent capability to counter hypersonics..Moreover, Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russia’s entire volley of six Kinzhals indicates the missile’s alleged status as a hypersonic system is at best questionable, Brookings said..And while the Russians have tested their Avangard HGV four times (with one failure), it is unclear whether this is (or should be) sufficient to qualify as actually fielding the system..Russia’s Zircon HCM allegedly has a suspiciously perfect test track record, but also suffers from inherent limitations of existing HCM technologies..Some US officials believe the best way to take out a highly maneuverable, hypersonic missile that bounces off the atmosphere and screams towards its terrestrial targets, is to hit it before it even launches..Rear Adm. Sean Regan, NORTHCOM director of operations, told the annual Space and Missile Defence (SMD) Symposium in Huntsville, AL, on August 8, that rather than only trying to knock a missile out of the sky, his command’s new strategy for future defence of the homeland leans heavily on emerging technologies and capabilities..According to a report in Breaking Defense, the latter includes directed energy weapons, autonomous vehicles and electronic warfare to take out adversary missiles and other threats before, or shortly after, they get off the ground..“We know that our competitors and adversaries will continue to advance by developing emerging tech technologies and capabilities,” Regan said. .“We also know that a ‘bullet-on-bullet’ strategy in the future is not fiscally possible. We simply cannot afford to try to match the ever-increasing threat by kinetic means alone.”.Regan noted, in particular, emerging threats from hypersonic missiles include those used by Russia in Ukraine, Chinese high-altitude balloons and North Korea’s development of solid fuel rockets..“The best missile strategy is to destroy the missiles prior to launch. A focus on missile defeat could enable distributed non-kinetic systems with larger magazines and the ability to engage missiles before they can deploy complex decoys, countermeasures, maneuvers or multiple reentry vehicles,” he said. .“We must get further left of launch in our approach. Integrated deterrence is establishing competition by using all levers of influence integrated across all domains and globally.”.“We know that the homeland is no longer a sanctuary. Our strategic nuclear deterrence is the foundation of homeland defence. But we must also account for the conventional capabilities our contenders have fielded or are developing,” he said..To get on top of those rapidly changing threats, Regan said, NORTHCOM and Canada’s NORAD have “developed our own defence ‘design’ for 2035, which outlines new ways and means for defending the homeland. This is very different from what we do today.”.The key is “early domain awareness.” .This includes the future use of “autonomous maritime and airborne platforms,” coupled with artificial intelligence tools to allow rapid digestion and dissemination of the incoming data and speed decision-making..That should potentially be accomplished through the Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR), or S-band radar..In addition to protecting the country from a legitimate attack, the capability to differentiate between real threats and decoys helps to preserve the Pentagon’s precious supply of interceptors. It also is designed to keep better tabs on jinking (a quick, evasive turn) hypersonic missiles..Regan said NORTHCOM is now hopeful the Missile Defence Agency (MDA) will be able to connect the LRDR to the “operational architecture” as early as 2024.
