Danielle Smith may become the next Premier of Alberta but the fate of the UCP, and with it Alberta’s new conservatism, lies squarely on the shoulders of Travis Toews..Can Smith unite the party? Is it even possible given the sometimes chippy if not rancorous leadership campaign? Here are some things she will need to sort out quickly or they will eat her alive — and the UCP as well..Among Jason Kenney’s shortcomings as premier was a failure to maintain caucus discipline. It may not be entirely his fault as it appears that several of his new UCP MLAs somehow managed to get elected without understanding politics. And since their election they have demonstrated that they don’t get ongoing governance either..Politics has been defined as the “art of the possible”. But to get to “possible” means being able to compromise, to negotiate, to lose a few in order to win the big one. If your ego doesn’t let you acknowledge a bigger picture, then you really should stay in your playpen rather than go to the legislature. If you are tempted to “take your ball and go home,” then you need to consider a new career..It’s been said that the fundamental rule of politics is “y’all dance wit da one what brung ya”. Many UCP MLAs seem to believe that they got elected based on their personal charisma, or their incredible charm, or their exceptional intelligence or dogged determination. While these factors may have helped them get the party nomination, they are largely irrelevant once a general election gets started. At that point the most important factors are the party’s political philosophy and policy platform, coupled with the leader’s personal appeal and communication skills..The issue of maintaining caucus discipline is a hard one. You can’t bribe everyone with some plum because there are only so many plums to go around. Nor does fear of being expelled from caucus carry much weight for the true ideologues. So what are Smith’s unity priorities? The work has already begun as no candidate is really anticipating anything other than a Smith victory. (The latest numbers still have Toews 20 points behind and Jean further back with a 35-point deficit.).Given some of their histories, Smith will face significant challenges bringing her leadership competitors on side..First, the “also-rans”, Leela Aheer, and Rajan Sawhney both polling at less than 2%, surely got a rude awakening about their appeal to the broader membership. No doubt Smith will offer Sawhney a cabinet post but Aheer is a bigger problem. Her accusation of racism has to have crossed a line and Aheer may have trouble getting the nomination in her riding. Neither of these two were able to obtain a single MLA endorsement..Then the “bottom-of-pack” Rebecca Schulz and Todd Loewen, polling at about 6% at least stayed out of the “Mean Girls” attack on Smith. They will most certainly be offered cabinet seats. At present, Loewen is not even a member of caucus and he could not attract a single MLA endorsement. Schulz ran a campaign that was not particularly memorable or polarizing. But, many people think highly of her, so she has not jeopardized her future. She had five MLA endorsements but they included high flying cabinet members: Jason Copping and Ric McIver. She will no doubt get a promotion in Smith’s cabinet..Brian Jean’s behaviour during the campaign has been confusing and he hasn’t moved much beyond 10% in the polls. He only has the support of two other MLAs — both from the Fort McMurray area. His latest raging on Smith’s history and character appear to be some sort of misguided kamikaze manoeuvre. But it is more likely to backfire by creating some last minute sympathy for Smith. It is clear from these comments that he will never entertain serving in a Smith cabinet. Hopefully, he will resign quietly not only from the party but his seat as well, leaving room for someone new from Fort McMurray..Finally, it will remain for Travis Toews to decide if he will be in a Smith government and what role he will play. He has 28 MLA endorsements including the heavy hitting ministers and strategists. He certainly has the ability to be a calming influence in caucus and ensure a smooth transition to the new government. He and Smith together can ensure caucus unity at least until after the next election. Are his positions against Smith’s Sovereignty Act entrenched or mere window dressing for his leadership campaign? His full support for the new government could be traded for some future substantive policy directions that Smith would not normally pursue. Will he be clear what he wants? Smith will not be willing to make any concessions on the Sovereignty Act so the ball is in Toews’ court. Is he going to play ball or take it home and with it possibly Alberta’s conservative future?.Bill Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
