Like the Oracle of Delphi, only the pollsters know the truth — and for a few drachmas they will share it..Pity modern democracy. It is almost impossible for the average voter to sort through all the campaign announcements, the various policy differences, the mudslinging, and the implications to them personally of electing a particular government. Nonetheless, like stock market prices, it's the collective mind that makes these social decisions. The question is: how do you read the collective mind? The answer: polling. But with a few heavy caveats..(If you would like a detailed backgrounder on polling see my WS op-ed which covered some strengths and pitfalls of modern polling. Make no mistake all the parties and even individual candidates in their ridings use polling to try and determine and influence our thoughts and decisions.).For most of us, the most spectacular failure in modern polling was the 2016 U.S. presidential election. You remember, Hillary Clinton was going to win at least up until Donald Trump actually won. Prior to that bust, it was the Danielle Smith’s fall from grace in the “Lake of Fire” election in 2012. Bear with me as we look at polling “predictions” versus actual results in Alberta politics..The 2012 “Lake of Fire” Election.The 2012 election may go down as the wildest in Alberta’s history. It was a roller coaster ride that turned out to be the most misguided “sure-thing” since the Bre-X stock scam..Danielle Smith burst on to the scene rejuvenating and giving a new focus for the Wildrose. Charismatic, articulate, intelligent, telegenic, she seemingly took Alberta voters by a storm. She softened the far right edges of Wildrose and provided a solid alternative to the floundering Progressive Conservatives..Allison Redford, having taken over from a very unpopular Ed Stelmach, continued the leftward drift of the PC’s. The key to her successful leadership bid was the open purchase of the support of the Alberta Teacher’s Association and by proxy the other unionized government employees. This deal carried over as part of the new and improved PC voter base to oppose Smith’s ascendancy. This and the hundreds of businesses and thousands of employees directly servicing the Alberta government is what explains the NDP’s current hold on the city of Edmonton..Back to the election, the public opinion polls consistently heralded a Smith victory with only a couple of polls below 40% support and a consistent 10-15% margin over the PCs. If this held on election day then Smith would win. However, that day 300 thousand more people voted than in 2008 and the participation rate jumped to over 54%. The final breakdown was — PCs (43.95%) and Wildrose (34.29%), NDP (9.82%) and Liberals (9.89%)..So how do we explain this reversal of the PCs and Wildrose on voting day? Turns out the Liberal’s decline of nearly 17% from 2008 was due to strategic left voting. They moved to the more left PCs to prevent a Smith right wing victory..So two things happened in the voting booth as voters actually had to make a decision as opposed to expressing an opinion to some pollster. One, the undecided and the Liberal voters moved to the PCs. And, two, some of the previously declared Wildrose supporters moved to the PCs as well. Was this caused by the so-called “Lake of Fire” incident? Possibly, but more likely it was caused by previously declared Wildrose supporters getting last minute cold feet — thinking “Is Smith really ready for power?” or “I have always supported the PCs”. More importantly, if the polls say your candidate is going to win then why even bother casting a ballot. That’s what happened to Clinton — her support base didn’t show up and Trump’s was galvanized thinking their individual votes would really count. But did these “swing” voters learn a lesson? We need to look at another election or two to answer that question..The 2015 “Orange Crush” Election.A lot of drama unfolded in the three years after Redford’s victory. Voters were wondering if there were any adults left in Alberta politics. Failed merger negotiations on the right. Floor crossings. It would have been hard to make this stuff up. The “snap” 2015 election was called a year early by Jim Prentice ostensibly to get a mandate for the Smith/Prentice deal and for his controversial austerity budget. But the early call didn’t make much sense as voters weren’t given any time to get used to the new alignment in the legislature..Just after Prentice won the leadership, the polls were consistently showing the PCs in the low 40s compared to the high teens for Wildrose. This changed with the election of Brian Jean as Wildrose leader. Then, the polls indicated about a 5% spread in favour of Wildrose, but they still couldn’t break the mid 30s. After poor performances by Jean and Prentice in the televised leader’s debate, the polls consistently showed the NDP in the low forties and both the Wildrose and the PCs mired in the low 20s. .Voters were angry and the election garnered another big turnout. Nearly 200 thousand more people voted than in 2012 and voter turnout also increased to 57%. The NDP added nearly 480 thousand voters and the Liberal vote declined by half yet again. .Despite being hailed as a great miracle for the NDP, the government only had support of 40.62% of the voters, lower than the mid 40’s% they were polling. They won simply because right-leaning voters refused to unify behind one of right-leaning parties. Rachel Notley was successful in consolidating the left, drawing votes away from the Liberals which added 10% to her vote totals. The Wildrose vote (24.2%) was largely what the pre-election polls had predicted in the low 20’s%. The PCs did better than their polling in the mid 20’s to a final total of 27.8%..The politicians learned many important lessons from Alberta voters in this election. The first was you can’t rush the democratic process. The unification of the left came about because of the natural attrition of Liberal supporters to the NDP. But for the right, the grass roots of neither the PCs nor the Wildrose were interested in getting together. The Red Tories of the old PC party were anathema to the Wildrose and likewise the perceived extremism of some in the Wildrose did not sit well with the old guard of the PCs. The folly of holding these resentments was made clear in the election results. But trying to circumvent the grass roots blew up in the faces of both Smith and Prentice. What was really needed was a plan which included the grass roots, and a moderate individual to execute that plan. Both of these would come from Jason Kenney..Another lesson from this election is loyalty is important. Both Danielle Smith and, to a lesser extent, Jim Prentice were tainted as betraying their constituencies. Danielle Smith’s supposed integrity in admitting she could not be an effective opposition leader against Jim Prentice did not stand the voter smell test. She was expected to be loyal to the people who elected her. It was generally concluded that this betrayal meant the end of her political career. And it did, at least for a while..One thing was certain — the Orange Crush (or at least the weak Squeeze) sent a very clear message to Alberta’s right. Either get your poop together or forever face a lefty government..In terms of polling, this election also showed some of the weaknesses of polls as predictors. The angry right-leaning voters when polled indicated they would vote for the NDP. However, when they got in the ballot booth, they just couldn’t do it. So the NDP voting was lower than the polls, and the UCP and PC voting was higher. Many angry voters wanted to “send a message” to Smith and Prentice and subsequently did vote NDP. When they woke up to the implications of such rash actions, they immediately regretted them. When they saw what the NDP polices were like they regretted their decisions even more. They would not forget their mistakes when they entered the voting booths in 2019..The 2019 “Blue Tornado” Election.In the summer of 2017, the polls pegged the approval of the newly formed UCP in the high fifties but then it trailed off up until the election. Amazingly, after the NDP polling bottomed in February 2017 at 23%, it increased from that point forward to the high 30%s just before the election. At no point in the final weeks before the election did the UCP consistently outpoll the NDP by more than 10% (~40% NDP-50% UCP). In the end, the UCP defeated the NDP by 22.2% ( 54.9 to 32.7) points. Polls are important but not necessarily predictive. In this case, the polls were out by more than 10% points or 100% polling error. The fact the pollsters didn’t think a UCP victory was a slam dunk actually helped firm up the resolve of the UCP voters. But nothing could help the NDP’s disastrous policy record. Again, some of the voting booth lessons from 2012 and 2015 were not lost on the voters. If you don’t show up or just “send messages,” then expect to pay the consequences..The 2023 “Smith is Evil” Election.Forgive my using an emotional term in the naming of this election, and I mean no disrespect to evil people far and wide. But up until this point Ms. Smith’s vile character seems to be all the NDP and the media is able to concentrate on. Any real policy debate over the important issues facing Albertans has been subsumed beneath the narrative of deciding whether Danielle Smith is actually the devil incarnate or merely one of his evil angels. It leads me to conclude that perhaps we haven’t really advanced very much from the days of the Salem Witch Trials. But I digress..Back to our polling lessons and what they mean for the current election. .First, past polls consistently overestimated the actual electoral support for the NDP. This is usually around 10% points. So the “too close to call” mantra of the pollsters may well be dead wrong and the actual votes turn out to be more the traditional Alberta 60/40 — right/left split. What is important about the incessant talk about “a virtual tie” is it should galvanize the UCP voters into the ballot booth. If NDP voters constantly hear they will “win Calgary” then they may have a reduced incentive to actually get out and vote..Second, voters are angry, perhaps at least as angry as in 2015, but for different reasons. Despite the happy campaign photos, UCP candidates are getting an earful as they knock on doors. They should graciously allow their previous supporters to vent long and hard. It should be cathartic and healing and ultimately allow these voters to return to the fold in the ballot booth. All those who angrily sent a message in 2015 and then returned to the fold in 2019 will not make the same mistake again. This doesn’t bode well for any UCP bleeding to Barry Morishita’s Alberta party. .Recent Polling.There have been six recent Alberta polls that may provide some important insights if we know where to look. I have taken the time to examine them in some detail so as to save you the pain. Here is what I learned. (Skip to the conclusions if you don’t like details.).CBC Janet Brown — April 11, 2023. Did not provide any Alberta totals but focused on Calgary proper (ie within the 26 riding border). The purpose of the partisan CBC was to provide a pre-emptive strike assuring Calgarians it was OK to vote NDP because so many of their friends and neighbours were going to do just that. Brown predicted the NDP would win Calgary by 5% points or 47% NDP – 42% UCP. She also found only 6% of voters were “orphans” who had no political home. The results did not estimate the number of undecideds. In the end, Brown’s election prediction model said the NDP would win Calgary with 18 seats versus eight for the UCP. Sadly they concluded, this wouldn’t be enough to ensure an overall NDP victory..Abacus - April 26, 2023. The Alberta vote intention was a tie of 36% each with an large undecided group of 22%. Most of this group voted UCP in the past. They pointed out the poll was taken before the new arena deal was announced. They polled all Alberta but “oversampled” Calgary. For Calgary, they predicted a 6% advantage for the UCP (a 34% NDP – 40% UCP). The contrast with the Brown poll is striking. An 11% point difference between the pollsters is really dramatic. But it may be explained by the fact they're polling different populations. It seems there is Calgary proper and Calgary CMA. Calgary CMA (census metropolitan area) includes Calgary, Rocky View County, Airdrie, Beiseker, Chestermere, Cochrane, Crossfield, Irricana, and Tsuu T'ina 145. In other words it includes parts of the more traditionally conservative rural ridings around Calgary. It’s clear Abacus polled Calgary CMA, but failed to mention it in the report..Think HQ - May 2, 2023. For Alberta it was again a tie at around 40% with undecideds at 13%. This poll looked at the two Calgary areas. “In Calgary (CMA), the two parties are statistically tied (47% of the decided vote for the NDP and 46% for the UCP), but in Calgary-proper with its 26 seats, the NDP currently hold a seven-percentage point lead over the UCP (50% vs. 43%).” So the NDP lead in Calgary increased from the Janet Brown poll. But somehow the Calgary (CMA) poll dropped 6% lead for the UCP from Abacus to a one-point lead for the NDP. The smaller sample size and the vagueness of the boundary is really calling into question the validity of the Calgary results. ThinkHQ also looked at how “locked-in” voters were. Although 13% were “undecided” they found that 40% of people were not firmly locked in on their votes and were open to change. .Global Ipsos - May 2, 2023. This was the first poll to give a provincial +3 advantage to the UCP of 39% to 36% with undecided at 14%, and 4% indicating they will not vote. They also supplied a split for Calgary for decided voters of 47% NDP vs. 45% UCP. However, they did not indicate whether they were polling Calgary proper or Calgary (CMA). Again, to determine how sure the voters were, Ipsos reported only 55% of voters were “absolutely certain” that their votes would not change. .Leger Post Media - May 4, 2023. Leger only reported on decided voters, but set the NDP slightly ahead at 45% to 43%. There was no reporting of the number of undecided voters. They also did a breakdown for the Calgary (CMA) which had a 10% lead for the UCP. This maybe an oversampling of the areas outside Calgary..Mainstreet Research - May 8, 2023. Mainstreet reported a provincial UCP lead of 45% to 40% with 10% undecided. They also did a breakdown for Calgary, but the numbers are hidden behind a pay wall. For decided voters the breakdown was 50%U CP, 43% NDP..What can we conclude from these polls? First, it's probably too early to see anything definitive. We will need to wait at least another week for more solid results. Second, Calgary is a hot spot, but we don’t have a consistent polling area nor do we have consistent reporting. Third, there is a high number of undecided voters who are likely waiting to see how the campaign unfolds. Fourth, up to half the voters are not currently locked-in and may be open to change their preference. In short, lots of room for movement..What do we know so far is that the demographic breakdowns seem to be consistent across all the polls. Men like the UCP, women like the NDP. Presumably there will be some discussion at the homes where these respective genders live. Old people like the UCP and young people like the NDP, but old people are more likely to vote at least until we get a ballot booth app for cell phones. The under-educated like the UCP and university types like the NDP. This is roughly also a working class vs professional class split. Odd that the working class doesn’t seem to be attracted to the workers NDP party..If you want a shortcut that gives you a simple clear indication of what it all means, I recommend going to Phillipe J. Fournier, who runs the website 338canada.com. He has an Alberta page and a Calgary page. He incorporates all the most recent polling into a prediction for the election. It is a point in time prediction so it will change as the campaign unfolds. My bottom line is this: ignore the polls and just look at what Fourier is saying. Currently (as of May 10) he has a slim majority of seats for the UCP at 45 to 42 but with a 75% certainty. For Calgary he has the NDP at 17 seats compared to 9 for the UCP. This is based almost entirely on the Mainstreet Calgary poll..We will summarize the polls and Fourier’s findings in next week’s review which will also look at the broader cultural wars and how they might affect the Alberta election..In the meantime here are the high points of the campaign in the second week..Unions demand action. Both the Alberta Teachers Association and the doctors union are demanding more money from the next government. You remember Alberta doctors are the highest paid in all of Canada. You remember during COVID teachers wanted protection from our children by refusing them access to classrooms. Advantage Notley..Smith won’t campaign. Contentious issues won’t form a part of the UCP’s platform. This includes a provincial police force, an Alberta pension or the Sovereignty Act. She must be dreaming if she thinks these issues won’t attract discussion. But while some would say she is wise to back off where more public debate is required, her enemies say she is either flip-flopping again or they're part of her ‘hidden agenda’. Hard to win on this one. Advantage Notley..Alberta wildfires. This has the potential of bringing a huge advantage to Smith. She suspended her campaign, invited Notley for some joint problem solving and visited the burn sites. Alberta’s emergency response coordinator was given the role of communicating to Albertans. Smith rolls out a program to provide emergency financial support to evacuation victims. The reason why this is such a bonus for Smith is it shows her in action, governing in a real crisis. Remember Robert Redford in The Candidate? His handling of the wildfire was a turning point in his campaign. Remember Nenshi running around everywhere acting like was solving the 2013 Calgary flood? The actual emergency plan and its execution had nothing to do with him. But he was the hero and got all the credit. Advantage big time to Smith. Which brings us to ... .Smith says the N word part 1. The NDP have dozens of ‘embarrassing’ Smith quotes which they are planning to release to social media. The only question is what to release when. The most damaging are usually left till the last week where they will be fresh in the minds of voters when they come to vote. However, the wildfire game changer had to be neutralized so... Did Danielle Smith really say that Albertans would gladly follow Hitler? Of course not, but that’s not the way it was reported. If you want a more balanced discussion on this issue see Lorne Gunter in the Edmonton Sun..Smith issues an “apology”. It is multipurpose to cover anything she ever said, anywhere, or anytime that might possibly offend anyone, even the biggest snowflake imaginable. Which leads to ....Smith says the N word part 2. Did Smith really say that 75% of Albertans were Nazis? Of course not but it seemed as if it needed to be reported again. Don Braid said “Tut Tut she has crossed a line." OMG!!! But the reporters won’t leave it alone because....Smith says the N word part 3. Did Smith really say that she hates the poppy and Albertans want another Holocaust that she is happy to coordinate? Of course not, but by now even reasonable news viewers are beginning to wonder if she is deranged. Mission partly accomplished. Advantage Notley..Notley spends $ on old people. Smith says she will, too. Tie.Safe Streets Action Plan. Smith announces tangible measures to help prevent violent offenders with multiple convictions from reoffending when out on bail. Remember the courts wouldn’t give bail to Tamara Lich. But the catch and release federal system, currently under attack by Pierre Poilievre, routinely turns repeat violent offenders out again. Advantage Smith. Which leads to ....Smith says the N word part 4. Did Smith really say her health care platform was to privatize our hospitals? (BTW three in Edmonton already have private owners as do most of the hospitals in Ontario.) No, but why bother with the truth if it doesn’t suit your objectives. Which leads to ....Protestors ‘activists’ storming her press conference. Suddenly things have gotten ugly. These loony bins were just that, and merely rude, but otherwise harmless. But what should be frightening for us and for Smith’s security is that these bozos were incited by the ludicrous claims made by the NDP and parroted by the media. See Rick Bell’s hilarious coverage. The next time these idiots might do real harm. BIG Advantage Smith. Particularly, when she carried on with the press conference with new resolve and calmly answered all the dumb reporter questions. .Gondek unhappy = Calgarians happy. When the Calgary Police Commission started dissing the beat cops, the province changed the rules on how members are appointed. Then Smith named three new members with impeccable credentials to help the police service deal with issues of drug addiction and homelessness. Gondek and the other woke members of council voted against accepting the new members. “Sorry,” says Smith, policing is a provincial matter. If you can’t do it, I will. Advantage Smith.Net Zero costs $60B. And means the oil and gas business has to shut down. Such a bargain compared with $87B to green up the electrical grid and another $87B to pay for Calgary’s own climate emergency. (Yes, it is no coincidence that these numbers are the same.) Looks like the real emergency is politicians keep entertaining these ridiculous climate alarmist notions. Advantage Smith..Smith accuses union dominance of the NDP. The mudslinging continues and the UCP probably has a bunch of punches in reserve. The only question is when to release them. Stay tuned..All in all I would say Smith’s rope-a-dope routine is bearing some fruit. At some point the actual facts really matter and will surface..The big event next week will be the leaders debate. That should move many of the undecideds one way or the other. And Grandpas — “don’t let your grandkids grow up to be commies” could be a new country song. I’ll check with Willie Nelson. The Alberta party and the Liberals will be invited to the debate but will be merely distractions for the main slug fest between Smith and Notley. Make sure to bring popcorn..William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
