New poll suggests most Canadians doubt Alberta or Quebec will leave Confederation

CALGARY — As the country is set to mark another Canada Day, a new national poll suggests most Canadians remain confident the country will stay together despite growing independence sentiment in Alberta and Quebec ahead of a potentially consequential political Fall.New data released by the Angus Reid Institute found that 64% of Canadians believe Alberta is unlikely to become independent from Canada, while 67% say the same about Quebec.The survey also found a majority of Canadians remain hopeful about the country's future, with 58% describing themselves as optimistic about Canada remaining united.While most Canadians do not expect either province to leave Confederation, the poll suggests many view independence movements as more than a temporary political trend.Just 17% of respondents said they believe the independence sentiment in Alberta and Quebec will gradually fade over time..Poll shows stagnant support for Alberta independence.Instead, Canadians were evenly split between those who see the movements as evidence of serious regional frustration and those who view them as a fundamental threat to national unity.Also, 36% described independence sentiment as a reflection of deeper regional grievances, while another 36% said it represents a fundamental problem for Canada's future as a united country.The findings come as both provinces prepare for major political events that could shape the national unity debate..Quebec is expected to hold a provincial election in 2026, while Alberta is preparing for a referendum on independence following recent changes to citizen-initiated referendum rules.Within the provinces themselves, support for independence remains a minority position but is more pronounced among residents who align with sovereignty-minded political movements.Albertans were more likely than Quebecers to view sovereignty as either inevitable or likely.Ten per cent of Albertans said independence is inevitable, while 26% believe it is possible.In Quebec, 5% said it was inevitable and 25% said it is likely.Albertans were also more inclined to view sovereignty movements as a fundamental challenge to Canada's unity..Nearly half of Alberta respondents — 46% — characterized the movement as a serious threat to national cohesion, compared to 35% of Quebec respondents.Political affiliation played a significant role in shaping views on the subject.Among Albertans who said they would vote for the United Conservative Party if an election were held today, 19% said Alberta independence is inevitable and 45% said it is likely.A similar pattern emerged in Quebec. Respondents who indicated support for the Parti Québécois were far more likely to believe Quebec independence is achievable, with 18% calling it inevitable and 41% saying it is likely.The results suggest that while most Canadians remain confident the country will remain intact, concerns over regional alienation and national unity continue to resonate as Alberta and Quebec move toward pivotal political decisions in the months ahead.

New poll suggests most Canadians doubt Alberta or Quebec will leave Confederation

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