The winds of political change are blowing across Canada — but are they strong enough to alter Alberta's political landscape on election day?
Justin Trudeau is gone, and Mark Carney is the new prime minister. Amid a trade war with the Trump administration, the Liberals are experiencing a surge in the polls, positioning themselves as defenders of Canada against American aggression.
On Friday, Edmonton Centre MP Randy Boissonnault cancelled his candidacy — leaving the seat open, potentially, for Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Alberta has 34 federal seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives hold 30, the Liberals hold two — one in Calgary (Calgary Skyview) and one in Edmonton (Edmonton Centre) — and the NDP hold two, both in Edmonton (Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach).
A key Alberta race is George Chahal in Calgary Skyview.
Chahal earned the nickname "porch pirate" for allegedly stealing a competitor’s campaign materials years ago.
"I believe the four (non-Conservative) ridings are still in play, as they’ve always been," said Erika Barootes, head of applied politics and public affairs at MaKami College.
She noted Mark Carney is currently enjoying a honeymoon phase.
"It is a relief for Liberal supporters that didn't think that they could vote for Liberals, but we have over a month to see who Mark Carney really is. I think the job of the Conservatives is to showcase that. You know, you can't let Liberals off the hook because they've changed leaders," said Barootes.
Alberta remains a Conservative stronghold, especially in rural areas and smaller cities, where support often exceeds 60–70%.
A March Léger poll showed 55% Conservative support province-wide. Urban ridings in Edmonton and Calgary could be vulnerable, particularly with an influx of people from other provinces.
A Liberal surge under Carney, coupled with dissatisfaction with Pierre Poilievre’s economic messaging, might erode some Conservative seats.
Projections suggest a floor of 30 seats for the Conservatives, with potential losses in Edmonton Mill Woods or Calgary Confederation if urban turnout favours the Liberals.
"I don't think the Liberals are going to gain any seats in Alberta, they might hold one of them," said Barootes. "I don't think the Liberals are going to have a sweep like what's projected."
Polls can shift quickly — “as quickly as the pendulum swings one way, it can swing back” — while the Conservatives have steadily risen and held firm, said Barootes.
With an election approaching, she added, "Mark Carney is going to be put under a microscope, because he has a great resume right now, especially when dealing with Trump in the U.S., however, we don't know how he is as a public servant."
The latest federal poll from Liaison Strategies, conducted March 17–19, 2025, with 1,500 adults, shows: Liberal Party of Canada 40%, Conservative Party of Canada 36%, New Democratic Party 9%, Bloc Québécois 6% (26% in Quebec), Green Party of Canada 4%, and People’s Party of Canada 3%.
