Nearly three-quarters of likely Alberta voters would choose to remain in Canada while fewer than one-quarter support beginning the process toward an independence referendum, according to a new Research Co. poll.The survey, released Monday, found 74% would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada, compared with 22% who would support the Alberta government beginning the legal process required under the Constitution to hold a binding referendum on independence.“Support for a binding referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada is highest among Albertans aged 35-to-54 (27%),” said Research Co. President Mario Canseco.Support fell to 20% among Albertans 55 and older and 18% among those aged 18 to 34.The results also showed declining support for Alberta becoming an independent country compared with a Research Co. survey conducted in January.Some 26% supported Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada, down five percentage points, while 16% favoured Alberta joining the United States, down eight points.The October 19 provincial referendum will also put questions concerning immigration and constitutional reform to Albertans.All five immigration proposals received majority support in the poll.Requiring voters in Alberta provincial elections to provide proof of Canadian citizenship received the most support at 66%.Another 65% backed Alberta taking greater control over immigration to reduce immigration to what the question described as more sustainable levels, prioritize economic migrants and give Albertans first priority for new employment opportunities.Some 60% supported requiring people with non-permanent legal immigration status to live in Alberta for at least 12 months before becoming eligible for provincially funded social support programs.The same proportion, 60%, supported charging a fee or premium to non-permanent residents for their families' use of Alberta's health-care and education systems.Another 58% supported restricting provincially funded programs including health care, education and other social services to Canadian citizens, permanent residents and people with an Alberta-approved immigration status.Support was lower for proposed constitutional changes..Some 46% backed Alberta working with other willing provinces to amend the Constitution to give provincial laws priority over federal laws when the two conflict in areas of provincial or shared jurisdiction.Another 45% supported having provincial governments rather than Ottawa select judges appointed to provincial Court of King’s Bench and Appeal courts.Allowing provinces to opt out of federal programs in areas of provincial jurisdiction without losing associated federal funding was supported by 41%.A proposal to abolish the unelected Senate received 39% support.The survey also found voter turnout would play a major role in whether Albertans viewed the October referendum as legitimately representing public opinion.Some 58% said turnout of between 51% and 60% of registered voters would be sufficient, rising to 75% if turnout reached between 61% and 70%. A total of 80% said participation exceeding 70% would be sufficient.Lower turnout produced the opposite result.Some 55% said turnout between 41% and 50% would be insufficient, while 69% said participation between 31% and 40% would not be enough. Another 72% considered turnout below 30% insufficient.Researchers also asked likely voters which public figures they trusted on the issue of Alberta independence.Former prime minister Stephen Harper and Prime Minister Mark Carney topped the list, with 51% saying they definitely or probably trusted each of them.Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre followed at 47%, ahead of Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi at 46%, former premier Rachel Notley at 40%, Premier Danielle Smith at 37% and former premier Jason Kenney at 32%.Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid was trusted by 26%, while federal NDP Leader Avi Lewis received 20% and Progressive Tory Party of Alberta Leader Peter Guthrie received 17%..Wildrose Loyalty Coalition Leader Paul Hinman, Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder Jeffrey Rath and Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre each registered 13%.Social media personality Marty Belanger received 11%, while Republican Party of Alberta Leader Cameron Davies was trusted by 10%.Respondents were also questioned about what they would do if Alberta became independent.The results were almost evenly divided, with 45% saying they would remain in Alberta and 44% saying they would leave.Calgary-area residents were most likely to say they would move, at 49%, compared with 44% in the Edmonton metropolitan area and 38% elsewhere in Alberta.Asked how an independent Alberta should be governed, 51% preferred retaining a parliamentary system while 19% favoured a presidential system with a directly elected head of government.Some 43% said Alberta should continue using the Canadian dollar following independence, while 22% favoured creating a new currency and 16% preferred adopting the U.S. dollar.Publicly funded universal health care received overwhelming support, with 81% saying an independent Alberta should maintain the system.Half of respondents said an independent Alberta should restore the death penalty for murder.Other proposals attracted less support. Some 43% favoured retaining the GST, while 36% supported allowing Albertans to own and carry handguns for self-defence.Another 31% supported making marijuana illegal, 27% favoured making same-sex marriage illegal and 24% supported making abortion illegal following independence.The Research Co. online survey was conducted August 24 to 26 among 750 likely Alberta voters. Results were weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region.The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
