The Alberta election’s outcome is too tough to determine, with the NDP holding a slim 2% lead, according to a poll conducted by Sovereign North Research and provided to the Western Standard. .The Alberta NDP would win with 49% of the vote if an election were held now, according to the poll. Meanwhile, the Alberta United Conservative Party would finish in second place (47%). .Subsequent to the Alberta UCP would be the Alberta Party (2%). This was followed by the Alberta Greens and other (1%). .While the NDP are leading, this is because it has a wide lead over the UCP in Edmonton (60% to 38%). During the 2019 election, the NDP held onto every seat in Edmonton except one. .That seat is Edmonton-South West, where UCP candidate Kaycee Madu is in a tight race. Madu is his party’s best hope at adding any blue to Edmonton. .The UCP have a slight lead in Calgary (49%). The NDP are not far behind (47%). .After the NDP was the Alberta Party (2%). This was followed by the Greens and another party (1%). .The competitiveness of Calgary prompted the two parties to focus on holding their events in the city. The path to an NDP majority lies in it flipping Calgary seats. .Around 250 people came to show support as Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley held a rally at the Brownstone in Calgary on Tuesday. .READ MORE: Notley says Alberta NDP government will offer capable governance.“After four very hard years dealing with a healthcare crisis, an affordability crisis, and a UCP government constantly in crisis, it is time for hope, for stability, for common sense, and for trusted leadership,” said Notley. .Even if people disagree with Notley, she said they know her. She says what she means and means what she says. .The UCP has a large lead over the NDP in central Alberta (56% to 38%). Its lead is smaller in northern Alberta (51% to 45%). .While the UCP is leading in southern Alberta at 50%, the NDP is at 45%. The closeness of this can be explained by the two Lethbridge seats being in play. .When asked which party leader people would prefer to see as premier following the election, Notley (53%) leads Alberta Premier Danielle Smith (47%) by six percentage points. .When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the party leaders, Notley has a net favourability rating of 5% (50% to 45%). Smith has a net unfavourability of -16% (39% to 55%). .There are 45% of respondents who stated they would prefer a UCP majority (42%) or minority (3%) government. More than half said they would prefer an NDP majority (44%) or minority (8%). .This poll comes around the same time as the Office of the Ethics Commissioner of Alberta found Smith contravened the Conflicts of Interest Act in her interaction with Alberta Justice in relation to the criminal charges against Street Church pastor Artur Pawlowski on Thursday. .READ MORE: Ethics Commissioner finds Smith contravened the conflicts of interest act in her dealings with Pawlowski.The allegations were she sought to influence the prosecution of Pawlowski, who was facing charges relating to the Coutts Border Blockade and tried to interfere with the administration of justice..“The Ethics Commissioner report confirmed the CBC and NDP lied regarding Crown Prosecutor contact,” she said. .The poll was conducted with interactive voice technology and texting from May 13 to 16 with 3,431 Albertans. It has a margin of error of +/- 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
