Only one-third of Americans will accept the results of the upcoming 2024 presidential election, an Angus Reid Institute (ARI) poll has found.After a dominant showing in the Iowa caucus on Monday night, the road to the Republican nomination appears to go through Mar-a-Lago. But if you ask the average American, it’s the roads of the nation’s democracy that need repairs.New data from the non-profit ARI finds Americans voicing considerable distress at both the micro and the macro level when it comes to elections, their reliability and their consequences.One-quarter say they have no confidence at all in the safeguards designed to ensure free and fair elections this November. A further one-in-three say they have little confidence, while just one-in-five say they’re totally comfortable the checks and balances will hold up.Among those who voted for Joe Biden in the last contest, held nearly four years ago, one-in-three say they’re not confident. Those who supported Trump in 2020 and who are perhaps more likely to believe Trump’s repeated claims that the election was “rigged”, are far more likely to voice doubt; four-in-five do so.These doubts fall not only on the election process itself, but on the potential results. Just one-in-three (32%) Americans say they will fully accept the results of the 2024 presidential election regardless of whether Biden or Trump win. The rest express some reservations, including 70% of past Trump voters who say they will only accept a Trump victory and approaching half (46%) of 2020 Biden voters who say only a Biden win will be viewed as legitimate in their eyes.Longer term, there are worries about the expression of the people’s will.Two-thirds of Americans (64%) say, broadly speaking, the idea that power is vested in the people is “weakening”, while seven-in-ten (69%) say the fundamental concept that “the rule of law applies to everyone” has also diminished. Overall, just one-in-five (20%) say they feel the federal government cares about issues important to them.The prospect of another Trump presidential term is one that causes serious concerns for some and jubilation for others. Overall, half (47%) say the country cannot handle another four years of Trump, this includes one-in-eight current Republicans (12%). More than two-in-five (43%) disagree with this notion.Half of Americans are now worried that their country may be on the path to authoritarianism. This is an idea held close equally by both Republicans (48%) and Democrats (50%).Two-in-five (38%) say America will be “much worse” if Biden secures another term. Slightly more (42%) say the same of a Trump victory come this fall.Partisanship is evident when those concerned with potential cheating in the 2024 election are asked which states are more at risk. A majority (60%) of Biden voters say it is Republican-controlled states that are more vulnerable to election fraud while a majority of Trump voters disagree and say it is instead the Democrat-controlled ones where cheating is more likely to happen.Past voters for both candidates are worried about the country’s democracy should the opposite party win. Three-quarters (75%) of those who voted Biden in 2020 believe America’s democracy will be “a lot” weaker after a Trump victory. Meanwhile, seven-in-ten (69%) past Trump voters believe a Biden victory would severely weaken democracy.The survey was conducted online from January 9 to 12 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,178 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
