Poll finds undecided Canadians could tip the scales in cliff‑hanger federal election race

Some voters have not locked in their choice and may hold the keys to who governs Canada after election day.

A new Angus Reid Institute (ARI) poll finds 37% of Liberal supporters are less than “very committed” to casting a ballot for the Liberals. 

Among would‑be Conservative voters, the share of soft support is smaller at 24%, yet still large enough to swing dozens of close ridings. 

Analysts say that difference could separate a fragile minority from a working majority.

Many are still watching and waiting before making a decision.

Roughly half of the uncommitted in both camps say they want to see how the campaign unfolds before deciding. 

Another quarter are waiting for tonight’s English‑language leaders’ debate, while smaller groups consider strategic voting or want more information about their local candidates.

For the Liberals, the danger is obvious. 

If their wavering supporters leave, the NDP stands to gain the most as 45% of uncommitted Liberals named the NDP as a second choice and 18% would vote for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives are even tighter. 

Nearly four-in-ten soft Conservatives, 39%, list the Liberals as their backup. 

“If those voters drift, the path to a blue government narrows fast,” said Shachi Kurl, President of ARI.

Issues could push them. 

Healthcare tops Canadians’ worry list, yet it is missing from the debate agenda. 

Two‑thirds of respondents, including 77% of uncommitted Liberals and 73% of Conservatives, say the topic is not getting enough attention in the campaign. 

A slim majority of 53% feel the same about the cost of living.

Conversely, half of Canadians think discussion of US tariffs is “about right,” while three-in-ten would prefer less talk. 

Still, 51% believe the economic threat from President Donald Trump has grown over the past two months, a view held even more strongly by swing Liberals.

Complicating matters, many Liberal voters, firm and soft supporters, say they are increasingly concerned about Trump’s plans to make Canada a “51st state,” an idea the White House refused to dismiss this week.

With polls tight and loyalties loose, strategists in every war room know the final verdict may rest with Canadians who, for now, are still making up their minds.