Poll showing Liberals in lead creates uproar over accuracy
Are emerging polls showing the Carney Liberals ahead of the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre accurate?
A March 27-29 poll from The Globe and Mail, CTV, and Nanos Research has sparked debate over plausibility. It surveyed 1,182 people.
"These polls are cherrypicking Carney’s demographic," said one X user.
Just 158 people in the 18-34 age bracket were surveyed, compared to 733 in the 55+ category — 291 people in the 35-54 age group were surveyed.
“Polls are not infallible," said Éric Grenier, a political analyst at TheWrit.ca. "We’ve seen in past elections how late swings or methodological quirks can skew results, and with the volatility we’re seeing now, it’s worth questioning whether the Liberal surge is as solid as it appears.”
Is a survey of 1,182 people, more than half elderly, representative of Canada’s entire voting-eligible population?
An Ipsos poll conducted March 24-26 for Global News found Carney holds a strong lead among Canadians aged 55 and older. Specifically, 50% of respondents in this age group chose Carney as the best pick for prime minister, compared to 34% for Poilievre. This points to a clear preference among older voters for Carney.
“We’ve got to be careful not to over-interpret these numbers," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. "A six-point Liberal lead sounds big, but with a credibility interval of ±3.1 points, it’s not a slam dunk— response bias could be at play.”
The most recent polls as of Wednesday — combined — have the Liberals holding a narrow lead.
Polls like Abacus (2023), Leger (March 2025), and sentiment from Nanos and Angus Reid suggest a rise in Conservative support among decided young voters, likely climbing from 27% in 2021 to 35-40% in 2025.
Polls and analyses — Abacus, CBC — consistently link this shift to affordability concerns.
However, the main overall narrative affecting the election is Canada-U.S. trade relations.
"Donald Trump’s threats and tariffs have many Canadians worrying about Canada’s place in a suddenly more uncertain international landscape," said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.
"Liberals have seized on these concerns, positioning Mark Carney as the best captain in a storm."
