A new Leger poll shows 70% of Albertans want the province to remain in Canada, while 22% support beginning the legal process toward independence, less than two weeks before the October 19 referendum.The survey found support for remaining in Confederation has increased five points since August, when 65% favoured staying in Canada. Support for pursuing independence has slipped from 23% to 22%, while 7% remain undecided.The results suggest the independence movement faces an uphill battle heading into the final days of the referendum campaign.The political divide is particularly pronounced among United Conservative Party supporters, with 48% favouring the independence process and 43% wanting Alberta to remain in Canada.Among Alberta NDP supporters, 98% favour remaining in Canada, compared with just 1% who support beginning the independence process.Regional differences are also significant. Edmonton residents are the most strongly opposed to independence, with 80% supporting remaining in Canada and 13% favouring the alternative.In Calgary, 66% want to remain in Canada, compared with 24% supporting the independence process. Outside the two major cities, 62% favour remaining and 30% support pursuing independence.The poll also found Albertans are increasingly motivated to vote.A total of 77% rated their likelihood of casting a ballot between eight and 10 on a 10-point scale, up from 68% in August..Among those supporting remaining in Canada, 91% expressed a high degree of certainty they would not change their minds before voting day. That compares with 71% among independence supporters.The survey found 67% believe their individual vote could make a difference in the referendum outcome.The referendum question asks Albertans whether the province should remain part of Canada or whether the provincial government should begin the constitutional process required to hold a binding referendum on independence.The Leger findings come as dissatisfaction with the direction of Alberta remains widespread.The survey found 58% believe the province is on the wrong track, compared with 36% who say it is heading in the right direction.Premier Danielle Smith is also facing declining approval ratings.Her approval stands at 38%, down eight points since April, while 55% disapprove of her performance.Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has an approval rating of 39%, with 45% disapproving..The governing UCP holds a narrow lead over the NDP in provincial voting intentions, with 47% support among decided voters compared with 45% for the opposition party. Another 9% favour other parties or independent candidates.UCP support has fallen four points since August.The poll also found uncertainty surrounding Smith's position on independence.Only 32% of Albertans say they are certain the premier wants Alberta to remain part of Canada. Among UCP supporters, that figure rises to 60%, compared with 11% among NDP supporters.Alberta independence has also emerged as one of the province's most pressing political issues.A total of 16% identify provincial nationalism and independence as the single most important issue facing Alberta, up from 9% in April.That puts the issue alongside health care, also at 16%, and ahead of inflation and rising interest rates at 14%.The economic consequences of the independence debate are another major concern.Half of Albertans believe the referendum and ongoing independence discussions will negatively affect the provincial economy, compared with 21% who expect a positive impact.Among NDP supporters, 80% anticipate negative economic consequences. Among UCP supporters, 42% expect a positive impact, while 19% foresee negative consequences.The survey also suggests the referendum debate is influencing household spending.A total of 34% report changes in their household spending habits because of the impending vote, including 21% who say they have reduced spending.That represents an increase from August, when 14% reported cutting back.Another 13% say their spending has increased, while 55% report no change.The independence debate is also creating divisions among families, friends and coworkers.Three in 10 Albertans say discussions about the province's future have caused tension in their personal relationships.Among residents aged 18 to 34, that figure climbs to 44%.Concerns about foreign involvement remain widespread, with 61% expressing concern about possible American influence or interference in the referendum debate.That includes 87% of NDP supporters and 39% of UCP supporters.The poll found 31% of Albertans expect to vote during advance polling from October 13 to 17, while 22% plan to vote on referendum day.Another 28% say they have already requested a special ballot package.Leger surveyed 1,001 Alberta adults online between October 2 and October 4, 2026.Respondents were recruited through the Leger Opinion online panel, with results weighted by age, gender, region and education.For comparison purposes, a probability sample of the same size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Because the survey used a non-probability online panel, that margin of error does not formally apply.
