Despite months of headlines and activism, most Albertans remain unconvinced that leaving Canada is the right path, according to a new survey from the Angus Reid Institute. While debates over sovereignty have heated up, opposition to independence significantly outpaces support, with many residents still undecided.Fewer than three-in-10 Albertans (29%) say they would vote for their province to leave Canada if a referendum were held today, and most of that group (21%) say they are leaning toward leaving rather than firmly committed (8%). Two-thirds (65%) would vote to remain, with the majority (57%) solidly committed to staying.The survey explored the arguments driving both sides. Among “definite stay” voters, nearly all found Canadian identity (92%), Alberta’s place within the country (90%) and the difficulty of moving resources from a landlocked Alberta (93%) persuasive. “Lean stay” voters agreed to a lesser degree but were also swayed by arguments for independence, including perceptions that Alberta contributes more than it receives (88%) and could control its own resources (79%).Those who favor leaving Alberta found stay arguments largely unconvincing. Nearly all “leave” respondents were persuaded by points about escaping “harmful federal policies” (98%, 94%) and controlling provincial resources (97%, 95%). Concerns over access to tidewater or replicating federal social services registered with only a small fraction of leave supporters.Political leadership on the issue also divides opinion. A majority (54%) disapprove of how Premier Danielle Smith has handled the independence issue, while more than two-in-five (44%) approve of how Prime Minister Mark Carney has addressed it. Within her own party, Smith faces notable criticism despite her government easing citizen-led referendum rules..The survey highlighted sharp information gaps between leave and stay supporters. Stay voters primarily rely on mainstream media (71%) and social media (45%), while leave voters turn to alternative media (50%) and personal networks (45%).If Alberta did seek indpendence, the majority of stay voters say they would leave the province: 74% would move elsewhere in Canada, while only 23% say they would remain in an independent Alberta. Many also expect the U.S. to pressure a newly independent Alberta to join, politically (73%), economically (77%) or even militarily (57%). Despite these expectations, few Albertans support the idea of joining the United States.The survey of 979 Albertan adults was conducted online from February 2-6, 2026 and weighted to reflect the provincial population by age, gender, income, education and ethnicity. The results mark the first installment of a three-part series exploring the motivations, arguments and potential consequences of Alberta sovereignty movements.
