An Angus Reid Institute online poll finds the incumbent Saskatchewan Party has a 12-point provincial lead in popular support, but trails the NDP in Regina and Saskatoon.The recent survey finds Premier Scott Moe and his government are preferred on most important issues. The Sask Party has good grades on energy policy (60% good job, 33% poor job), the economy and jobs (52% good job, 41% bad job), environment and climate change (50% vs 37%), and indigenous issues (48% vs 37%).On the cost of living and health care, the Sask Party holds an advantage over the NDP, despite failing to gain good grades on performance. On the cost-of-living file, three-in-five (62%) respondents say Moe and cabinet have done a poor job, compared to one-in-three (33%) who offer praise. Similar percentages are found with health care (30% good job, 65% poor job).On education, 35% say the Sask Party is performing well, while 62% say the opposite. Asked which party is better suited to deal with education, 41% choose the NDP and 38% the current government. This opinion occurs as ongoing strike action by the Saskatchewan Teachers Federation continues.NDP leader Carla Beck has been a Regina MLA since 2016 and party leader since June 2022. However, one-in-five Saskatchewan residents (18%) have yet to form an opinion of her. Scott Moe holds a distinct advantage on personal appeal, with 53% saying they approve of him at this point, while 35% offer a positive view of Beck. However, in Saskatoon, his lead over Beck is only 3 points (47% vs 44%), and in Regina, he trails Beck (44% vs 41%). Ultimately, Beck and the NDP’s political fortunes will rely on convincing voters outside of the cities that the party is a solid alternative and to expand the base beyond what is now largely support from residents younger than 35.The Saskatchewan Party holds a 31-point advantage over the NDP in regions outside of Saskatoon and Regina. Within those two cities, the NDP hold smaller but significant leads (+8 in Regina, +12 in Saskatoon). The economic file is a key strength for the incumbents. Half of residents (52%) say that Moe and the Sask. Party are best to lead on the economy, compared to 30% for Beck and the NDP.The Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) has 6% support across the province, while the Green Party has 1%, and other non-mainstream parties have 5% support. SUP support is strongest among males (8%) and those younger than 35 (9%).Half of Saskatchewan residents say that it is time for a change in government at the provincial level (50%). This sentiment is held by 26% of people who voted Sask Party in the election and 91% of those who voted NDP.The results are from an online survey from February 28 to March 12, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 504 Saskatchewan adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
