Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's approval rating has fallen to 39% following October's referendum, with nearly six in 10 Albertans now disapproving of her performance, according to a new ThinkHQ Public Affairs poll.However, the survey suggests Smith retains strong support among United Conservative Party voters heading into the party's annual general meeting later this month, despite a gradual decline in her popularity over the past year.The poll, conducted October 21-27, found 59% of Albertans disapprove of Smith's performance, including 49% who strongly disapprove. Of the 39% who approve, 21% strongly approve.ThinkHQ said the premier's approval has slipped six percentage points since spring 2025, when the government introduced the Election Statutes Amendment Act, which paved the way for October's referendum.Before then, Smith's approval generally hovered in the mid-40% range.Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi also faces more disapproval than approval, although his numbers are slightly better than Smith's.The survey found 44% of Albertans approve of Nenshi, including 16% who strongly approve, while 48% disapprove, including 39% who strongly disapprove.Nenshi's approval has remained relatively stable in the mid-40% range since becoming NDP leader..Despite Smith's declining provincewide numbers, the survey found 73% of Albertans who voted UCP in the last provincial election still approve of her performance.That represents a decline from approximately 80% a year ago, but ThinkHQ said the results suggest Smith's leadership is not facing an immediate threat.By comparison, Nenshi enjoys 87% approval among NDP voters.The findings come ahead of the UCP's annual general meeting in November, where Smith's leadership has been the subject of speculation following the referendum.ThinkHQ president Marc Henry said the referendum has hurt Smith politically, but the damage has been gradual rather than dramatic.“The whole referendum drama in Alberta has undoubtedly taken a toll on the premier’s reputation, but it’s neither as sudden nor as drastic as some may imagine,” Henry said.“The erosion we’ve seen in Smith’s approval really seemed to begin as public attention and discourse about the referendum ramped up, but it’s been gradual and seems to have plateaued.”Henry said Smith remains in a considerably stronger position among party supporters than former premier Jason Kenney was before his leadership review.A month before Kenney's leadership vote, his approval among UCP voters stood at just 50%, compared with Smith's current 73%.“In terms of her leadership? She’s bruised but certainly not broken,” Henry said.“By way of comparison, a month out from his own leadership review vote, Jason Kenney sat at only 50% approval among UCP voters. That forecast a downfall; Smith’s numbers today don’t seem to augur that.”The survey also revealed sharp political divisions across Alberta..Smith's approval is strongest outside Calgary and Edmonton, particularly among men, Albertans without university degrees and voters aged 55 and older.Nenshi performs better in the province's two largest cities, among women, university-educated voters and Albertans under 35.ThinkHQ said the demographic differences reflect Alberta's increasingly polarized political environment.Henry suggested the referendum may have carried an additional political cost for Smith by overshadowing other government accomplishments.He pointed to a pipeline agreement with Ottawa, strong provincial finances and other government initiatives that might otherwise have helped improve the premier's standing.“Perhaps the highest cost for the premier in this referendum business has been lost opportunities,” Henry said.“She’s inked a deal with Ottawa to build a new pipeline to the west coast; the province’s finances are awash in money; there have been some positive accomplishments over the past year which have been overshadowed by the public preoccupation with the referendum.”Henry said those developments might normally have produced an increase in the premier's popularity.“So at a time when one might expect the premier’s numbers to ‘tick up’, instead they’ve ticked down,” he said.The survey suggests the referendum has weakened Smith's standing among Albertans overall, while leaving her with substantial support among the UCP voters who helped elect her government.ThinkHQ surveyed 1,160 adult Albertans online between October 21 and 27, 2026.Respondents were selected through a stratified sample of online panel participants, with results weighted by gender, age, education and region to reflect Alberta's population.The polling firm said a comparable probability-based random sample would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Because the survey used an online panel, that margin does not directly apply to its results.
