TORONTO — A new survey suggests Ontario’s opposition leaders and prospective Liberal leadership candidates remain largely unfamiliar to many voters, even as the Progressive Conservatives maintain a narrow lead in voter intention.
Liaison Strategies released the poll Friday, indicating that while the province’s political landscape remains competitive, many respondents say they do not know enough about opposition figures to form an opinion.
“The ballot remains competitive, but the favourability numbers suggest that many voters are still getting to know the alternatives to the current government,” said David Valentin, principal at the firm.
Valentin said Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner are the most established opposition leaders tested in the survey, though both still face significant unfamiliarity among voters.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Ontarians between Feb. 20 and Feb. 22 using interactive voice response technology and random digit dialing of landline and cellphone numbers. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Stiles, leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party, recorded the highest favourability rating among the figures tested. Twenty-eight % of respondents said they viewed her favourably, compared to 25 % unfavourably. Another 18 % said they were unsure, while 30 % said they were not familiar with her.
Support for Stiles was strongest among younger voters, with 36 % of those aged 18 to 34 reporting a favourable impression.
Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario, registered a 22 % favourability rating and a 20 % unfavourable rating. However, 38 % of respondents said they were not familiar enough with him to express an opinion.
Among potential candidates for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party, Toronto city councillor Josh Matlow showed the strongest results in the survey.
Matlow posted an 18 % favourability rating across Ontario, though most respondents — 59 % — said they were unfamiliar with him. His support was stronger in Toronto, where the poll found a 33 % favourability rating.
Other potential contenders registered significantly lower recognition levels.
Former cabinet minister Nathaniel Erskine-Smith recorded a net approval rating of zero, with 7 % of respondents reporting favourable views and 7 % unfavourable.
The survey also tested Mike Crawley, who recently said he would not seek the Liberal leadership. Valentin said the results may reflect confusion with a former CBC Queen’s Park correspondent who shares the same name.
Several other potential candidates — including Rob Cerjanec, Lee Fairclough, Eric Lombardi, Dylan Marando and Vikram Handa — were largely unknown to respondents, with more than 90 % saying they were unfamiliar with them.
Valentin said opposition parties may need to raise the profile of their leaders and candidates if they hope to challenge the governing party.
“For the opposition to capitalize on the government’s high disapproval ratings, their leaders and potential candidates will need to significantly increase their profile outside of their home bases,” he said.
He added that the Liberal leadership race is still in its early stages, with no candidates having formally filed paperwork yet, while the NDP and Greens face the challenge of introducing their leaders to a broader provincial audience.
