A new Alberta-wide poll by the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) shows if the provincial election were held today, the Alberta United Conservative Party would have a narrow victory over the NDP..And another poll also found the UCP ahead. This one, by Mainstreet Research showed the UCP with 47% and the NDP with 45%..The ARI survey found of Albertans who intend to vote in the 2023 election, 48% would vote UCP, while 44% would support the NDP..ARI said the story of 2022 for the UCP is one of a 10-point rise in support throughout the year, coinciding with a 10-point decline in vote intention for the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta (WIPA). .With Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in charge, the poll said 1% will vote WIPA. . Angus Reid pollAngus Reid poll .Election jockeying has begun between the two parties, with the top two issues with voters being cost of living (63%) and healthcare (56%). No other issue receives more than 30% with voters, with the economy (27%), energy policy (25%) and government spending (20%) coming closest..Breaking down the issues by party supporters, UCP voters are most concerned about inflation (69%). This is followed by energy policy (45%) the economy (40%), and healthcare (38%)..People who intend to vote NDP cite healthcare (78%), inflation (52%), education (34%), and climate change (29%) as their top issues..Not surprisingly, Albertans hold differing views on the government’s performance, depending on which side of the political fence they are on..UCP voters give the government net positive marks on healthcare (59% good job, 34% poor job) and inflation (66% good job, 27% poor job). . Angus Reid pollAngus Reid poll .NDP supporters are far more negative: Almost all are critical of the government’s performance on healthcare (98% poor job) and inflation (90%)..The NDP’s support is in Alberta’s two largest cities, with the party holding a 51% to 40% lead in Calgary and 50% to 43% in Edmonton. That is dwarfed by the deficit the party faces in the rest of the province, 30% to 59% against the UCP..The ARI survey found a gender gap among intended voters..Of men, 55% say they would vote UCP if an election was held today, while 33% would vote NDP.. Angus Reid pollAngus Reid poll .Women are more likely to vote for the NDP (53%), with 42% choosing the UCP..By age, the UCP’s support is higher than the NDP’s among Albertans older than 34, while the NDP holds more favour with 18- to 34-year-olds..Almost as soon as she took office, Smith announced a cost-of-living relief bill of $2.4 billion, which would suspend the fuel tax and reindex income supports for people with disabilities..Three-in-five Albertans believe Smith’s cost of living benefit package is a good policy, but there is less certainty as to whether it was targeted at the right people (28%) or should have been given to every one (33%). Three in ten call it a bad policy.. Angus Reid pollAngus Reid poll .Smith’s largest news maker has been the Alberta Sovereignty Act (ASA), which was passed in the legislature on Thursday. .An ARI survey from September showed the ASA was not popular with most Albertans..The ARI conducted an online survey from November 28 to December 3 among a representative randomized sample of 591 Albertan adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- four percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
