Pierre Poilievre appears to be "in the driver's seat" in the Conservative leadership race, according to Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research.."There's a bit of a unique moment here where we're seeing the winning liberal coalition from 2015 start to unravel as young people start to look at the Conservative Party as as an alternative," he said in an interview with the Western Standard..According to the most recent Leger poll 44% of Conservative voters believe Poilievre would make the best party leader, while 17% favour former Liberal Premier Jean Charest. .Nanos also said when looking at fundraising numbers as a proxy for levels of support in the race, "it's a slam dunk for Pierre Poilievre." The MP for Carleton, Ontario raised more than $4 million in the second quarter of 2022, compared with Charest's $1.3 million..Nanos said when Poilievre's lofty fundraising numbers are combined with his more than 300,000 memberships sold, it appears "he is definitely in the driver's seat.".Former leadership candidate Patrick Brown claimed to have sold more than 150,000 memberships, while Charest’s campaign says it added “tens of thousands” of members..Nanos pointed out nationally, the Conservative Party is polling higher than the governing Liberals. According to a June 22 survey, the Conservatives sit at 36%, compared to the Liberals at 31%, the NDP at 19%, the Bloc Quebecois at 6%, the Greens at 5%, and the People's Party at 3%. .According to Nanos, younger voters are also turning towards the Conservative party. He said this is a "unique moment" where the Liberal's winning 2015 coalition is beginning to unravel as Canadians turn pivot the "anti-establishment" Poilievre.."I think the fact of the matter is, if young people are struggling to pay the rent, they really have nothing to lose. That's why they see a candidate like Pierre Poilievre as enticing," Nanos said.."They probably don't agree with everything that he stands for. But they do agree with his tone, and his claim that there's something wrong with a system and it needs to be changed.".But Nanos said the question remains whether Poilievre is organized enough to deliver on his advantages.."Those factors like organizational capability and political muscle on the ground are just as important as selling memberships," Nanos said..Nanos said Leslyn Lewis managed to pull into third place because of her successes during the last leadership race, where she gained more votes than Erin O'Toole and Peter MacKay on the second ballot..Nanos said Lewis also has the pro-life movement, which tends to be highly-engaged and motivated, "firmly behind her."."She could be a surprise in the election campaign. I'm not saying that she could win, but she might do better than some people expect," he said.
Pierre Poilievre appears to be "in the driver's seat" in the Conservative leadership race, according to Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research.."There's a bit of a unique moment here where we're seeing the winning liberal coalition from 2015 start to unravel as young people start to look at the Conservative Party as as an alternative," he said in an interview with the Western Standard..According to the most recent Leger poll 44% of Conservative voters believe Poilievre would make the best party leader, while 17% favour former Liberal Premier Jean Charest. .Nanos also said when looking at fundraising numbers as a proxy for levels of support in the race, "it's a slam dunk for Pierre Poilievre." The MP for Carleton, Ontario raised more than $4 million in the second quarter of 2022, compared with Charest's $1.3 million..Nanos said when Poilievre's lofty fundraising numbers are combined with his more than 300,000 memberships sold, it appears "he is definitely in the driver's seat.".Former leadership candidate Patrick Brown claimed to have sold more than 150,000 memberships, while Charest’s campaign says it added “tens of thousands” of members..Nanos pointed out nationally, the Conservative Party is polling higher than the governing Liberals. According to a June 22 survey, the Conservatives sit at 36%, compared to the Liberals at 31%, the NDP at 19%, the Bloc Quebecois at 6%, the Greens at 5%, and the People's Party at 3%. .According to Nanos, younger voters are also turning towards the Conservative party. He said this is a "unique moment" where the Liberal's winning 2015 coalition is beginning to unravel as Canadians turn pivot the "anti-establishment" Poilievre.."I think the fact of the matter is, if young people are struggling to pay the rent, they really have nothing to lose. That's why they see a candidate like Pierre Poilievre as enticing," Nanos said.."They probably don't agree with everything that he stands for. But they do agree with his tone, and his claim that there's something wrong with a system and it needs to be changed.".But Nanos said the question remains whether Poilievre is organized enough to deliver on his advantages.."Those factors like organizational capability and political muscle on the ground are just as important as selling memberships," Nanos said..Nanos said Leslyn Lewis managed to pull into third place because of her successes during the last leadership race, where she gained more votes than Erin O'Toole and Peter MacKay on the second ballot..Nanos said Lewis also has the pro-life movement, which tends to be highly-engaged and motivated, "firmly behind her."."She could be a surprise in the election campaign. I'm not saying that she could win, but she might do better than some people expect," he said.
