A political strategy group says the Doug Ford Progressive Conservatives will likely call an election early in 2025 and not wait for the June 2026 fixed election date.A recent report by Earnscliffe Strategies found many reasons an election is “in the air.”“Whether it is the government’s fast tracking of several bills, or the year-end deadline that Premier Ford has provided his caucus members to decide if they will seek re-election, there are multiple indications that we could be into an Ontario election early in 2025, more than a year ahead of the fixed election date of June 2026,” Earnscliffe wrote.According to 388Canada, the Ford PCs lead with 47% popular support, far ahead of the Ontario Liberal Party at 25%, the Ontario NDP at 19%, and the Green Party at 5%.“Riding high in the polls, the Ford Tories are looking to seize the opportunity before them and call for an early vote. There is almost a perfect storm for doing so. The opposition parties are split in terms of public support. The Tories could ride the wave of unpopularity of the Prime Minister, as a federal election seems less likely in the first quarter of 2025.”Ford was critical of United States President Donald Trump’s promise of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico if the countries didn’t do more to stop migrants and fentanyl from coming into the U.S.Ford told the media that Trump’s tariff threat was “like a family member stabbing you right in the heart”. Ford said he had “no choice” but to retaliate. On the last day of fall session, said Ontario might cut off clean power supplies to the U.S. if the tariffs were imposed. The Ontario government has launched a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign in the United States highlighting America’s close ties with Ontario. The campaign includes a 60-second television advertisement, as well as two 15-second spots.. The ads will air on Fox News during prime-time hours and on ESPN during NFL football games.Ads for transit shelters, billboards and print will also be featured in the Washington airport and other target markets during the holiday season.During the fall session, the Ford PCs announced an Affordable Energy Act and made the largest competitive energy procurement in the province’s history. The Fall 2024 Red Tape Reduction Package capped off six years of efforts that have eliminated 550 measures and reduced expenses by $1 billion.The political climate suggests an election sooner rather than later, according to Earnscliffe, which has offices in Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver.“Potential liabilities facing the Ford governments include the ongoing Greenbelt investigation, the fiscal situation of the province, and the uncertain economic fallout of more protectionist policies in the United States. Conservative strategists see these factors as potentially creating greater electoral uncertainty the longer the vote is held off.”The NDP is trying to gain traction, slowly nominating candidates, putting out advertisements to introduce leader Marit Stiles to voters and raising funds for a potential early election. The party is putting together its election team and recently introduced a housing plan expected to be among its election planks. Last month, the party also announced the nomination of former Toronto mayor David Miller as a strategic advisor.Leader Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals have also released a three-part housing platform. Two election campaigns in 2018 and 2022 saw the party reduced to single digit seat counts. Now the Liberals are in a fight for survival as they fundraise and recruit candidates.“The Liberals are also focused on developing policy that will appeal to Ontarians facing an uncertain economic future,” Earnscliffe notes. “At the same time, the governing Conservatives have run attack ads against Ms. Crombie for much of 2024, painting her as being in favour of higher taxes and continuation of a consumer carbon tax, despite her statements to the contrary.”
A political strategy group says the Doug Ford Progressive Conservatives will likely call an election early in 2025 and not wait for the June 2026 fixed election date.A recent report by Earnscliffe Strategies found many reasons an election is “in the air.”“Whether it is the government’s fast tracking of several bills, or the year-end deadline that Premier Ford has provided his caucus members to decide if they will seek re-election, there are multiple indications that we could be into an Ontario election early in 2025, more than a year ahead of the fixed election date of June 2026,” Earnscliffe wrote.According to 388Canada, the Ford PCs lead with 47% popular support, far ahead of the Ontario Liberal Party at 25%, the Ontario NDP at 19%, and the Green Party at 5%.“Riding high in the polls, the Ford Tories are looking to seize the opportunity before them and call for an early vote. There is almost a perfect storm for doing so. The opposition parties are split in terms of public support. The Tories could ride the wave of unpopularity of the Prime Minister, as a federal election seems less likely in the first quarter of 2025.”Ford was critical of United States President Donald Trump’s promise of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico if the countries didn’t do more to stop migrants and fentanyl from coming into the U.S.Ford told the media that Trump’s tariff threat was “like a family member stabbing you right in the heart”. Ford said he had “no choice” but to retaliate. On the last day of fall session, said Ontario might cut off clean power supplies to the U.S. if the tariffs were imposed. The Ontario government has launched a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign in the United States highlighting America’s close ties with Ontario. The campaign includes a 60-second television advertisement, as well as two 15-second spots.. The ads will air on Fox News during prime-time hours and on ESPN during NFL football games.Ads for transit shelters, billboards and print will also be featured in the Washington airport and other target markets during the holiday season.During the fall session, the Ford PCs announced an Affordable Energy Act and made the largest competitive energy procurement in the province’s history. The Fall 2024 Red Tape Reduction Package capped off six years of efforts that have eliminated 550 measures and reduced expenses by $1 billion.The political climate suggests an election sooner rather than later, according to Earnscliffe, which has offices in Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver.“Potential liabilities facing the Ford governments include the ongoing Greenbelt investigation, the fiscal situation of the province, and the uncertain economic fallout of more protectionist policies in the United States. Conservative strategists see these factors as potentially creating greater electoral uncertainty the longer the vote is held off.”The NDP is trying to gain traction, slowly nominating candidates, putting out advertisements to introduce leader Marit Stiles to voters and raising funds for a potential early election. The party is putting together its election team and recently introduced a housing plan expected to be among its election planks. Last month, the party also announced the nomination of former Toronto mayor David Miller as a strategic advisor.Leader Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals have also released a three-part housing platform. Two election campaigns in 2018 and 2022 saw the party reduced to single digit seat counts. Now the Liberals are in a fight for survival as they fundraise and recruit candidates.“The Liberals are also focused on developing policy that will appeal to Ontarians facing an uncertain economic future,” Earnscliffe notes. “At the same time, the governing Conservatives have run attack ads against Ms. Crombie for much of 2024, painting her as being in favour of higher taxes and continuation of a consumer carbon tax, despite her statements to the contrary.”
