The Alberta election will be decided in a dozen battleground ridings, according to a Lethbridge professor..Geoffrey Hale, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Lethbridge, said Danielle Smith has widened her path to possible victory since taking power, but that it will be more difficult than in 2019..“Certainly, she got off to a very rocky start in November, and she has been climbing back. Polling data that was circulating the beginning of this year showed that there was a group of about 20% of the population that was open to a conservative vote which was skeptical about Premier Smith,” said Hale in an interview with the Western Standard..“More recent polling data suggests that she has made some inroads on that group, but she hasn't closed the sale. Levels of undecided voters remain quite high.”.In 2019, the UCP gained 55% of the electoral vote to take 63 of 87 seats under Jason Kenney. Smith won the UCP leadership on October 6 with almost 54% of the party vote leaving her little time to demonstrate a governing track record. .Hale said Smith has done well at pulling in factions of the party and reaching out to voters who were disillusioned due to the handling of the pandemic. Her path to secure UCP victory is to win over “traditional business Tories” and non-partisan voters who want “competent, responsive government.”.“They're less concerned about debates over federalism. They're not terribly concerned about refighting the pros and cons to the pandemic. They're saying, what have you done for me lately in measurable terms,” Hale explained..“The average voter has very limited expectations. They know what they'd like to see; they know what they [do] see. Can I get through to my doctor? Is my elderly parent in home care or continuing care facing a tough time? Can I access emergency health care systems when I need it? Are my kids getting the services they need at school?”.Hale isn’t sure progress on health care delivery and wait time reductions will be clear enough to voters by May to sway them on that issue. The provincial campaign and ground level battles in ridings could decide everything..“The election will be won or lost during the campaign by the leader and parties that can first of all, connect that message with ordinary Albertans, particularly in Calgary, and who can refute the partisan noise coming from the other side,” Hale concluded..Geographically, Hale sees the UCP enjoying safe seats in Calgary’s south and west, but getting challenged by the NDP in the city’s centre, north, and east. Elsewhere, “small town Alberta” is “heavily conservative” and Edmonton is the opposite. .“The contest is going to be around the broader capital region, places like Leduc. Sherwood, Park, Stony Plain. Those seats are going to be competitive. There are some open seats where we're into retail politics at a level that we don't have any really good data on.”.Alberta’s fixed election date requires the election to be held by the end of May. Although delaying the election could have given Smith more time to establish her leadership, Smith said it would not have been well received..“Fixed election dates have pros and cons. Once people have an expectation that there is a particular cycle for electoral accountability, the farther you seem to be putting that date off, the more people are inclined to think you are being self serving,” Hale said..“Many people assume that most politicians are self-serving. There is an enormous amount of cynicism about the system out there.”
