Canadians could be facing tighter propane supplies this winter as national inventories have slipped well below typical levels, the Canada Energy Regulator reported Wednesday. Blacklock's Reporter says the warning raises concerns about the possibility of price spikes like those seen during the brutal 2014 cold snap.A Market Snapshot report said propane inventories sit at 1,561,000 cubic metres, about 19.7% under the five-year average. Western Canada’s supply is down 12.6%, while Ontario’s inventory has plunged 30.6% below normal. Regulators cautioned that extreme cold or heavy agricultural demand can drain supplies quickly.Forecasts offer little clarity. Environment Canada is predicting a higher likelihood of warmer-than-usual temperatures, but the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a colder winter driven by La Niña conditions that could persist into 2026. La Niña winters often shift the jet stream northward, altering temperatures and storm patterns in ways that boost heating demand for propane and natural gas..About 1% of Canadians rely on propane for home heating. In 2014, low inventories and a deep cold snap triggered shortages from Québec to the Midwest, sending spot prices soaring from 26 cents to 69 cents per litre. Sarnia prices jumped 109% to a record 71.5 cents per litre.The surge triggered an investigation by the Competition Bureau, which found no evidence of price fixing. Its report pointed to harsh weather and export pressures as causes of the imbalance. “Where there is high demand for a finite good, prices tend to rise,” then-assistant deputy commissioner Martine Dagenais told MPs in 2014, adding that propane markets behave much like electricity during peak periods..Former NDP MP John Rafferty told the Commons at the time that constituents were blindsided by soaring bills, including one homeowner who said a refill cost had climbed 80% since spring.With inventories already lower than normal and winter forecasts pointing in different directions, regulators say the coming months will determine whether history repeats itself.
