A report by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) suggests a sustained pandemic may increase the threat of right-wing extremism and inter-state conflict..“The three futures described within the Framework are not intended to be predictive rather they are hypothetical possibilities of how the coming six years could unfold in light of the ongoing pandemic and how quickly viable vaccines and treatments can be developed and distributed,” the report reads..It identifies a range of political, economic and security challenges that could emerge — or become more prominent — as the pandemic continues..Some of those challenges include a semi-permanent recession, a severe financial crisis, increased poverty, a breakdown of trust in democracy, the replacement of liberalism in government with populist movements, continuing rise of authoritarian governments, and an increase in right-wing extremism and inter-state conflict globally..Even in the best-case scenario, DRDC predicts, “… we can expect that the adversarial states will remain those already identified as such prior to the pandemic, including China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.”.The same is true for right-wing extremism, which the report says is already on the rise around the world — and is likely to continue to rise, particularly the longer COVID-19 remains out of control, reports Global News..The federal Liberal government has identified the rise of right-wing extremism and hate as a major threat to Canada, while the Canadian Armed Forces has started working to weed such behaviour and ideology from the ranks..“The world will continue to experience conflict regardless of which future is closest to the events that transpire in the coming years. Clearly, conflict can be expected to be more prevalent and increasingly violent in a baseline and more still in a worst-case than in a best-case type outcome. Hybrid warfare, including cyber-attacks and influence operations, will likely be observed to varying degrees in all three futures particularly since this is generally less costly than conventional warfare and the difficulty of attribution can reduce or avert reprisals. It seems likely that hybrid warfare may again increase across the futures with lower levels in a best-case world compared to baseline and worst case,” the report states..“The pandemic has acted to accelerate existing global trends so it follows that the longer and more severely it plays out, the greater the impact will be on international security. Military planners would be wise to keep this metric in mind,” the report concludes..Public trust in governments, particularly in democracies such as Canada, will also likely suffer the longer the pandemic remains, along with confidence in international organizations like the United Nations and NATO..Ken Grafton is the Western Standards Ottawa Bureau Chief. He can be reached at kgrafton@westernstandardonline.com
