A rumour circulating in Ottawa is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is giving consideration to proroguing Parliament, says Michelle Rempel Garner, CPC MP, Calgary Nose Hill, in her weekly newsletter..“Rumours are always rampant on Parliament Hill, but one particular piece of speculation is gaining steam, that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who once again finds himself in the middle of a giant scandal, is trying to find a way to take the heat off and is considering proroguing Parliament shortly after tabling this year's federal budget,” says Rempel Garner. .“Now, rumours and speculation are just that, rumours and speculation, and to date, the whispers of a potential prorogation fall into that category. But this speculation seems more likely when the dire straits of Trudeau's current political position are considered.”.Trudeau is facing a series of crises, not the least of which is refusing to launch a public inquiry into allegations of Communist Chinese interference in Canadian elections, which has garnered international attention and drawn cross-partisan condemnation. At the same time, he has drawn fire for failing to address Canada's inflation crisis or for multiple ethics breaches made by his caucus and cabinet ministers, says Rempel Garner..“Making things worse for Trudeau is all of this is happening at the start of a near-continuous four-month stretch of Parliamentary sitting days,” she says..“Trudeau and his beleaguered cabinet are scheduled to face opposition interrogations in the House of Commons and Parliamentary committees for the next four months.”.“This confluence of political crises means Trudeau needs an immediate way to stop the bleeding, so rumours of prorogation are swirling.”.In Canada prorogation is the end of a parliamentary session in the Parliament, meaning the daily question period would stop, committees couldn't sit and move motions detrimental to Trudeau's political prospects, and ministers would return to their ridings and away from the reach of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, says Rempel Garner..“There are many reasons why Trudeau would consider this a viable political option. He has used this tactic before at the height of the WE Charity scandal, so if he's considering prorogation now, he probably thinks he can get away with it again,” she says..“Also, prorogation would wash away contentious bills that have divided Trudeau's caucus and key stakeholder groups. These include changes to the Official Languages Act that caused a schism in his Quebec caucus, bills that sparked concern about government censorship and a bill regarding firearms that divided Trudeau's caucus among rural and urban lines and raised the ire of First Nations leaders.”.Another line of her thinking is the Parliamentary Press Gallery is focused on the foreign interference story, and Trudeau might believe prorogation could shift their focus away from the foreign interference and onto prorogation. .Yet prorogation could be risky for him, says Rempel Garner..“The last time Trudeau prorogued, the country was still in the middle of deep pandemic restrictions, Parliament was being conducted virtually, and Trudeau's main political rival, the Conservative Party, was in the middle of a leadership election,” she says. “Today, with the country reeling from the economic impact of pandemic restrictions and spending, the electorate has little tolerance for political bull----.”.“The Conservatives elected Pierre Poilievre as their leader with a massive mandate, who is both an effective opponent against Trudeau, and whom Trudeau is having difficulty scoring a punch on. Today, compared to the last prorogation in 2020, there would be little public tolerance, and vigorous pushback from the opposition if Trudeau prorogued.”.Rempel Garner sees it as dominoes ready to fall, saying other hurdles Trudeau faces are: establishing a feasible justification for proroguing Parliament; his popularity has declined, not just with voters, but also within his caucus; the Parliamentary Press Gallery isn't as likely to let Trudeau get off the hook for the foreign interference issue..“And perhaps most importantly, the Liberal's supply and confidence deal with the New Democratic Party might fall apart if the NDP are forced to justify an interruption of Parliament without justification outside of covering for Trudeau's failures,” she says. “It would be the ultimate sign the NDP had become a useless puppet arm of the Liberals something that leader Jagmeet Singh would have extreme difficulty explaining to his party loyalists.”.“But things are pretty bad for Trudeau right now, and I wouldn't put it past him to shamelessly push the eject button with a prorogation.”
