A newly released RCMP intelligence memo from 1981 reveals federal police quietly worried Alberta premier Peter Lougheed could become the catalyst for Western Canada breaking away from Confederation.Blacklock's Reporter says the classified assessment, produced by the Mounties’ counter-terrorism unit and later obtained through Access to Information, concluded Western independence lacked momentum mainly because it was missing a powerful leader — a gap Lougheed was seen as capable of filling.“An individual who is considered a potential leader is the premier of Alberta, Peter Lougheed,” the memo stated. While acknowledging Lougheed publicly rejected independence and regularly described himself as “a Canadian first,” the RCMP speculated his hardline stance in oil pricing negotiations suggested “latent thoughts of independence.”The document argued Western alienation alone was not enough to fracture the country without a commanding figure at the helm. “There is one ingredient lacking to make Western separatism a viable force,” the memo said, adding the West had yet to find “a René Lévesque of the West.”According to the RCMP, an independence push led by Lougheed — or someone of comparable stature — could quickly gain traction..“If Lougheed or someone of his stature agitates for Western independence, it could become a reality,” the report warned.The Mounties also raised concerns unrest could turn violent if political tensions escalated. “In an emotional situation, tempers could flare and the build up of frustration could result in violence,” the memo said, noting the long-term outcome of secession efforts remained uncertain.Several organizations were flagged as part of the separatist landscape, including the Alberta Farmers Union, Canada West Federation, Saskatchewan Taxpayers Association, and Western Canada Concept — a short-lived independence party that briefly held a seat in the Alberta Legislature in 1982.The RCMP pointed to growing alienation following the 1989 federal election, saying resentment toward Ottawa and perceptions of exploitation by Eastern Canada were fuelling renewed activity. .The 1976 election of the Parti Québécois in Quebec was also cited as an inspiration, demonstrating how a disciplined, well-funded movement with the right leader could pull a province out of Confederation.“Discontent in the West has not developed overnight,” the memo stated, listing grievances such as discriminatory freight rates, loss of control over natural resources, inadequate returns from federal contributions, and domination by Eastern interests.The assessment concluded Alberta posed the greatest risk of leading a independence surge. “Indications are that Western alienation could grow stronger especially in Alberta,” the RCMP wrote.Footnotes attached to the memo traced federal monitoring of Western independence movements back to 1946, when the Western Canada Federation was founded in Saskatoon by tax protester Russell Smith. The RCMP estimated the group’s membership at roughly 400.
