Premier Jason Kenney set a low bar — a 50% plus one majority — to hang onto the leadership of the United Conservative Party (UCP)..Anything less than that when the results of his leadership review are announced Wednesday, and he’s out. .But how much more than 50% plus one would suffice for the good of a deeply divided party and a province at risk of again being at the mercy of an NDP government?.“Party division in Canada is perceived as the kiss of death. The tradition in Canada is that party disunity is difficult to overcome,” said Tom Flanagan, University of Calgary professor emeritus of political science — and Kenney supporter and friend..“It would almost be better perhaps for Jason to be defeated than to win by some really narrow margin.” .“But we don’t know what that margin is. It’s more of a practical than a theoretical issue, not so much what is the right number, it’s how much opposition will continue. If the victory’s a close one, it’s quite possible that the internal opposition to the leader will continue in spite of the result.”.Over time, the list of UCP caucus members calling for Kenney to resign has grown..“This is one of the unknowns. If the vote is overwhelming, 80%-90% in favour of Jason, he has a strong hand to tell the critics to pipe down, that party membership doesn’t back you, so get in line. If the vote is more marginal, it’s harder for him to say that.”.If it’s overwhelming, Kenney’s still in a Catch 22..So many questions have swirled around the integrity of the mail-in ballot vote, even if Kenney legitimately wins by a large margin, trust is shattered, many will allege he won by nefarious methods. .Social media is saturated with suspicious comments about the way the leadership review was conducted. Distrust grew with every erratic change to the rules starting with the move to mail-in ballots against protests of MLAs, constituency association officials, and members who wanted in-person voting..Meanwhile, there’s an ongoing RCMP investigation into alleged voter fraud in the 2017 leadership campaign Kenney won when the Progressive Conservative party merged with the Wildrose Party to form the UCP..Now, there’s an investigation by Elections Alberta into possibly more than one complaint that memberships were fraudulently created..MLA Brian Jean, who will run for UCP leadership, claims more that 4,600 memberships were purchased with eight credit cards. He wants to know who paid for them and if people know they’ve been signed up as members..It must be determined bulk purchases were improper or simply a matter of convenience, said Flanagan..“The (UCP’s) claim is there were a lot of genuine sales put together for convenience in one batch or one credit card. Personally, I think if the rules accept that, that’s a mistake. I prefer rules that require a separate credit card number for each purchase, for each member.”.“The federal party didn’t accept that. We brought in rules insisting on individual membership purchases. We even went so far as to have separate credit cards for husband and wife,” said Flanagan, once an advisor to former prime minister Stephen Harper..In the event of a victory, doubts would linger..“Even if there is a yes majority, is that decisive for the future of the party? Will it be accepted? Or will there be continuing criticism on the integrity of the process.”.Kenney’s challenge would be to pull the party together..He hasn’t shown an inclination to do that. During his April 9 virtual speech at the special general meeting (SGM) Kenney neglected to outline a unity plan. Instead, he announced he expected “every member of our caucus and our team also to respect the decision” if he won. Period..Hardly words that inspire loyalty. He widened the divide..Kenney’s the victim of “self-inflicted wounds,” said Flanagan..“I’ve been told a lot of this arises from Jason’s failure from the beginning to keep caucus members onside, communicate with them on a regular basis, make sure he had support for the measures he was taking.” .“If that’s the problem, high-handed authoritarian measures won’t work. It seems that he would have to take a different attitude towards caucus, take more positive measures to bring everyone together. Now whether that’s possible at this late date, I don’t know.”.It’s not like Kenney never saw how a leader brought people together..Kenney served in various cabinet posts from 2006-2015 under former prime minister Stephen Harper..Harper was leader of the Canadian Alliance when it merged with the Progressive Conservatives in 2003 and faced the long, difficult task of unifying the party..“I remember how much effort Harper as leader put into keeping these factions together. He came from the Canadian Alliance. He really bent over backwards to conciliate the Progressive Conservative side.”.“People used to say that Harper was dictatorial. But he spent a lot of time with caucus listening to people. I always assumed that since Jason had been there, he would have absorbed all these lessons about bringing factions together…The results seem to suggest that he didn’t.”.So, Kenney’s claim that 50% plus one would be a decisive victory “doesn’t seem likely to work.”.Ousted leaders have set higher bars..When faced with a leadership review in March 2006, former premier Ralph Klein said he needed 75% to continue. Only 55% of the delegates supported him. He resigned as leader that September..Alberta politics have had a “turbulent” history..“Since Peter Lougheed resigned voluntarily in 1985, five Conservative leaders were forced out by opposition within the caucus or the party at large. In historical perspective, Jason’s problems are nothing new,” said Flanagan..“Before Klein, Don Getty was forced out of office by dissent within the party, reportedly by big donors who thought he couldn’t win. After Klein, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, and Jim Prentice were forced out of the premier’s office by opposition within the caucus.”.Prentice resigned in 2015 after the NDP’s 53-seat victory..Redford won support of 77% of delegates who voted on her leadership in November 2013. Stelmach also received 77% in his 2009 review. Both were eventually forced to resign..In 2019, under Kenney’s leadership, the UCP won a stunning 63 of Alberta’s 87 seats..And here he is today, waiting to see the party wants him to stay on as leader. But should he?.“There seems to be a culture of conflict within the party. It didn’t matter when the opposition parties were small and weak, but now that the opposition has consolidated around the NDP, internal fighting can be fatal to the Conservatives’ electoral chances,” warned Flanagan.
