Smith acknowledges waning public interest in Alberta’s pension exit plan

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says there is little sign of public support for the province’s proposed withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), signaling the controversial plan may not advance without a clear mandate from residents.

Speaking to reporters Thursday, Smith said she has not seen enough public appetite to justify moving forward with a referendum on the issue.

“I have said I would put it to the people if I saw evidence they wanted to vote on it,” she said. “I am not seeing that at the moment.”

The premier suggested that if public sentiment changes, Albertans could trigger a vote through the 2021 Citizen Initiative Act.

“If I am misreading the public on that and they want to have an actual vote on it, then that is another issue that can be put forward by citizens’ initiative,” Smith said.

The plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan drew criticism from federal officials and skepticism over the province’s claim it would be entitled to 53% of the CPP’s $699.6 billion fund — a figure equating to $370.8 billion.

That estimate was published in a 2023 consultants’ report commissioned by the province.

However, a December 2023 report by Canada’s Chief Actuary dismissed the projection as unrealistic.

The report stated Alberta’s share would be “a hypothetical allocation” that exceeds total net investment income and referenced outside analysis suggesting the true figure is closer to $120 billion to $150 billion.

The Chief Actuary did not release official calculations.

Federal leaders have consistently argued Alberta’s exit would harm pensioners across the country.

“The harm it would cause is undeniable,” then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wrote in a 2023 letter, warning that such a move would increase financial volatility for millions of Canadians.

At the time, then-Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault, Alberta’s top representative in cabinet, rejected the province’s financial assumptions.

“I don’t buy the math,” he said. “I think the numbers are going to be crunched very carefully over the next year, quite frankly, if Alberta pulls out of the Canada Pension Plan.”

For now, Smith appears to be putting the proposal on hold, saying, “I am seeing the same results you are. I am not seeing there is an appetite to put it to the people at the moment.”