The recently signed federal–provincial memorandum of understanding (MOU) on energy remained the dominant topic of the day on Monday as the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) released its 2025 State of the Industry Report and 2026 Forecast.Speaking in Calgary, CAOEC president and CEO Mark Scholz called the MOU — signed last week by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith — a “game changer” for the oil and gas sector.He highlighted the federal government’s decision to allow enhanced oil recovery (EOR) to qualify under federal emissions policy frameworks, a shift he said puts Canadian producers on a more level footing with their US competitors.“For years, we were puzzled as to why EOR was excluded from the conversation,” Scholz said.“Whether you store carbon underground, use it to make products, or inject it to extract more Canadian resources, it’s a good thing. This makes us far more competitive with the United States.”Scholz also argued that increased capacity on West Coast pipelines will benefit oil sands producers but will also free up space for operators, support more drilling activity, and enable higher production.He believes the MOU addresses several long-standing concerns from conventional producers, including the federal emissions cap and proposed methane regulations..“Twelve months ago, this would have been unheard of,” Scholz said.Scholz said Carney’s approach signals a dramatic shift in tone from Ottawa toward natural resource development.“We have seen a complete 180-degree turn in policy, in tone, and in attitudes toward resource extraction,” he said.He added that he is taking the prime minister “at his word” that the MOU represents a serious commitment to advancing a pipeline to the BC coast, but that all potential stakeholders will ultimately have to come to the table to resolve a long list of issues.“We’ve seen it reflected in the polls,” he said, when discussing the fact that the winds of public opinion have changed across the country, as “more than 60% of Canadians support greater pipeline access to the west coast.”Premier Danielle Smith, speaking separately on the issue on Monday, said the MOU is already encouraging major pipeline companies to participate in technical assessments.“They're at the table. We've got the expertise of every major pipeline company assisting us in our due diligence and our technical understanding,” Smith said when asked about private proponent investment. Previously, the Alberta government committed $14 million to help the project get it off the ground.“[There are] six different stages that this pipeline would need to go through to reach ultimate commissioning,” Smith confirmed.“Our hope would be that once it's on the major projects list, [we will have] a two-year time horizon to get all of the regulatory approvals in place.”.Energy group projects steady oil and gas activity, highlights importance of sector jobs .The premier stated her government would also assist with all of the indigenous consultations in the future, as one of the key factors in the pipeline being approved as a major project was the condition of First Nations co-ownership.“What happened last time is that the company seemed to have done a pretty good job, but the governance, not so much, so we don't want to have those same problems this time,” Smith stated.“Now we have a commitment from the federal government that we won't have an emissions cap. We have a commitment that they will work with us to make sure it is the lowest-emissions heavy oil on the market, and we have a commitment to work together on the Pathways project so that we can decarbonize further.”She also addressed the MOU’s reference to a potential carbon tax of $130 per tonne — a figure that is still under review.The current trajectory toward $170 per tonne by 2030 is "too high," according to the premier, but she said the industry consensus has been to freeze the rate at $95 for now while further modelling is completed.“If it's too low, it won't pay for investments in emissions-reduction technology. If it's too high, companies are going to go out of business and there will be no one left to pay,” Smith said, confirming her government will hire a third-party modeller to identify an optimal price going forward.
