The trade war with the U.S. has sparked political upheaval not only at the federal level but across Canada’s provinces, with new data from the Angus Reid Institute revealing a significant shift in approval ratings for several premiers — while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith maintains steady popularity.
The institute’s quarterly premier approval survey, released Tuesday, highlights a so-called “Trump bump” for some of the country’s first ministers, while others are mired in domestic controversies despite their efforts on the international stage.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has seen a remarkable turnaround, with his approval rating surging to 48% — up from the low 30s, where it languished for nearly two years. Ford’s high-profile role in trade negotiations with the U.S. has earned him the nickname “Captain Canada” among some observers, boosting his standing in the province.
In British Columbia, Premier David Eby has also gained ground, with approval of his performance climbing seven points to 53%. The increase comes despite backlash over a controversial new bill granting his NDP government emergency powers to counter U.S. tariffs.
Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey, preparing to leave office, emerges as the country’s most popular premier, with approval soaring 22 points to 68%. The spike follows his government’s historic renegotiation of the Churchill Falls power agreement with Quebec.
However, not all premiers are riding the wave of trade-war goodwill. Alberta's Danielle Smith, a key figure in Canada-U.S. relations during the dispute, sees her approval rating hold steady at 46% — unchanged from two years ago. Analysts suggest a recent health-care scandal may be offsetting any gains from her diplomatic efforts.
Post-election, Smith's approval climbed to a high of 47% in September 2023, per Angus Reid, reflecting a summer bump. However, it stabilized between 42% and 47% through 2024, with a December 2024 Angus Reid poll showing 45% — consistent within a five-point range since her start.
A Leger poll marked a dip to 39% in August 2024, followed by a rebound to 46%, making her Alberta’s most approved provincial leader at that time.
Quebec Premier François Legault’s approval remains flat at 38%, statistically unchanged from December. Cost overruns tied to an online platform for the province’s auto insurance corporation appear to be dragging down his numbers, despite his response to U.S. trade pressures.
