TORONTO — S&P Global Ratings has revised Ontario’s credit outlook to negative from stable, citing rising deficits and debt under the Ford government.The agency affirmed the province’s long-term rating at AA- and its short-term rating at A-1+ on November 10. A negative outlook signals at least a one-in-three chance that S&P could lower the rating within the next two years if fiscal performance continues to weaken.The move follows the government’s Fall Economic Statement, released October 29, which projected a $16.9-billion deficit for 2026-27. That is up more than $3 billion from the $13.8-billion shortfall forecast in the spring budget. The province now does not expect to balance the books until 2029-30 — the fourth time the Ford government has delayed a return to balance.Debt interest charges are projected at $17.4 billion this year. That is more than the province spends on postsecondary education or the justice system. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation has noted the interest bill equals roughly $1,071 for every Ontarian..Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy has pointed to U.S. tariffs on steel, autos and other goods, along with broader global uncertainty, as the main drivers of the larger deficit. The government increased its contingency fund and fiscal reserve in response.Critics, including the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and the Fraser Institute, argue the deficit is also the result of spending that continues to rise faster than revenue. Program spending is projected higher than in the spring budget, and total provincial debt is on track to keep climbing.
