Ottawa's requirement that all new vehicles sold by 2035 be electric could increase Canada’s power consumption by 15.3%, requiring 13 large natural gas plants to meet demands, according to a new study.“Requiring all new vehicle sales in Canada to be electric in just 11 years means the provinces need to substantially increase their power generation capabilities and adding the equivalent of 10 new mega dams or 13 new gas plants in such a short timeline isn’t realistic or feasible,” said G. Cornelis van Kooten, Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of Electric Vehicles and the Demand for Electricity. The study measures how much additional electricity will be required in Canada and in three major provinces — Ontario, BC and Quebec — to charge electric vehicles once the federal government’s electric vehicle sales mandate comes into force.Once Canada’s vehicle fleet is fully electric, it will require ten new mega hydro dams (capable of producing 1,100 megawatts) nationwide, which is the size of BC’s new Site C dam. It took approximately ten years to plan and pass environmental regulations and an additional decade to build. To date, Site C is expected to cost $16 billion. Alternatively, the provinces could meet the increased electricity demand by building 13 large-scale natural gas plants nationwide capable of generating 500 megawatts of electricity each.“Canadians need to know just how much additional electricity is going to be required in order to meet Ottawa’s electric vehicle mandate, because its impact on the provinces — and taxpayers and ratepayers—will be significant,” van Kooten said.The paper said when the broadest scope of considerations is examined, "the benefit from EVs is smaller than anticipated" when it comes to overall emissions."Compared to an equivalent ICE vehicle, an EV reduces CO2 emissions by perhaps as little as 15% after 200,000 km," van Kooten said."When lifecycle emissions are counted, the emission-reduction benefits might be much smaller, depending on where the batteries and vehicles are built and how much fossil fuels are burned in mining cobalt, lithium and other minerals. It also depends on lifetime emissions in rebuilding local electricity grids and producing the power needed to fuel EVs."Van Kootens said "many obstacles still have to be overcome" to replace internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with electric ones."Internationally, they include the costs of externalities related to pollution from mining and manufacturing processes. Locally, the major obstacle relates to the likelihood of constructing sufficient power generating capacity to meet the anticipated demand EVs would impose on electricity grids," van Kooten explained."Storage and the development of hydro and nuclear power are challenging to deploy in a timely way. The real-world situation is not as easy as merely replacing current ICE vehicles with EVs."Van Kooten estimates that EVs could increase electrical system loads from 7.5% to 15.3%. Overall, Canada could see an increase in the annual load ranging from 46.8 to 95.1 terawatt hours.
Ottawa's requirement that all new vehicles sold by 2035 be electric could increase Canada’s power consumption by 15.3%, requiring 13 large natural gas plants to meet demands, according to a new study.“Requiring all new vehicle sales in Canada to be electric in just 11 years means the provinces need to substantially increase their power generation capabilities and adding the equivalent of 10 new mega dams or 13 new gas plants in such a short timeline isn’t realistic or feasible,” said G. Cornelis van Kooten, Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of Electric Vehicles and the Demand for Electricity. The study measures how much additional electricity will be required in Canada and in three major provinces — Ontario, BC and Quebec — to charge electric vehicles once the federal government’s electric vehicle sales mandate comes into force.Once Canada’s vehicle fleet is fully electric, it will require ten new mega hydro dams (capable of producing 1,100 megawatts) nationwide, which is the size of BC’s new Site C dam. It took approximately ten years to plan and pass environmental regulations and an additional decade to build. To date, Site C is expected to cost $16 billion. Alternatively, the provinces could meet the increased electricity demand by building 13 large-scale natural gas plants nationwide capable of generating 500 megawatts of electricity each.“Canadians need to know just how much additional electricity is going to be required in order to meet Ottawa’s electric vehicle mandate, because its impact on the provinces — and taxpayers and ratepayers—will be significant,” van Kooten said.The paper said when the broadest scope of considerations is examined, "the benefit from EVs is smaller than anticipated" when it comes to overall emissions."Compared to an equivalent ICE vehicle, an EV reduces CO2 emissions by perhaps as little as 15% after 200,000 km," van Kooten said."When lifecycle emissions are counted, the emission-reduction benefits might be much smaller, depending on where the batteries and vehicles are built and how much fossil fuels are burned in mining cobalt, lithium and other minerals. It also depends on lifetime emissions in rebuilding local electricity grids and producing the power needed to fuel EVs."Van Kootens said "many obstacles still have to be overcome" to replace internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with electric ones."Internationally, they include the costs of externalities related to pollution from mining and manufacturing processes. Locally, the major obstacle relates to the likelihood of constructing sufficient power generating capacity to meet the anticipated demand EVs would impose on electricity grids," van Kooten explained."Storage and the development of hydro and nuclear power are challenging to deploy in a timely way. The real-world situation is not as easy as merely replacing current ICE vehicles with EVs."Van Kooten estimates that EVs could increase electrical system loads from 7.5% to 15.3%. Overall, Canada could see an increase in the annual load ranging from 46.8 to 95.1 terawatt hours.
