A Canadian think tank is expressing doubts Canada's new prime minister will reverse an emissions cap on oil and gas, despite fresh proof it will be a massive job-killer.
Last November, Ottawa made new regulations to cap Canada’s oil and gas industry’s emissions at a level 35% lower than in 2019, starting in 2026. A recent analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates the policy would reduce Canada's collective prosperity by $20.5 billion in 2032 and result in 40,300 fewer jobs.
Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst at the MEI, says that's no surprise.
“This analysis from the PBO confirms what we have long been saying at the MEI: that this emissions cap will prove costly for Canada’s workers and its economy,” says Gabriel Giguère. “The emissions cap only makes our economy weaker at a time when it’s already under threat.”
The researcher notes that the jobs in the oil and gas sector are among the highest paid in the country. The average salary of workers in oil and gas extraction is $151,461, which is almost 2.4 times the average Canadian salary.
The MEI expressed skepticism when asked by the Western Standard if Canada's new prime minister was likely to reverse the policy now that the economic damage it will cause is clear.
“With a new government, there’s always a sliver of hope that it does the right thing and removes some of the more harmful bills passed by its predecessor,” said Renaud Brossard, vice president of Communications at the Montreal Economic Institute.
“When you look at who our upcoming prime minister, Mark Carney, has surrounded himself with, as well as his previous statements though, let’s just say we’re not holding our collective breaths."
Given the global nature of the oil and gas industry, the MEI believes the policy will do little to lower worldwide emissions.
“Whatever this federal government believes, it is clear that there’s a significant and sustained market demand for energy products throughout the world,” explains Giguère.
“Every time Ottawa tries to legislate to keep Canadian energy in the ground, other jurisdictions with lesser environmental standards pick-up the slack and simply sell more oil and gas."
According to the Canadian government, Canada's share of global emissions decreased from 1.76% in 2005 to 1.40% in 2021, ranking it 12th most in the world.
Canada’s share is anticipated to continue to decline due to the expected rapid increase in emissions from economically developing and emerging countries, particularly China (+86.9% from 2005 to 2021), India (+75.1%), Brazil (+26.4%), and Indonesia (+41.3%).
From 2005 to 2021, emissions in the United States decreased by 14.2% (from 6 740 to 5 783 Mt CO2 eq), while the European Union decreased 22.6% (from 4 267 to 3 301 Mt CO2 eq).
