Fertility and family are on the decline in Canada, and governments should be worried about it, a policy advisor warns.In a new report, Decline and fall: Trends in family formation and fertility in Canada since 2001, jointly published by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, Tim Sargent asks three questions: (1) do people gain significantly from being part of a family? (2) What are the trends in family formation in Canada over the past two decades? And (3), what factors explain these trends?The 56-page report finds that being part of a family provides incredible benefits, both in terms of income and broader well-being. A few highlights:Adjusting for economies of scale (recognizing that couples require only 1.5 the income of a single person to have the same standard of living) the average single 35-45-year-old has only 49.2% of the income of their coupled counterpart.Single parent homes have approximately 35-40 percent less income per family member relative to a two-parent family.Married people have significantly lower incidence of, and better survival rates from both cancer and cardiovascular disease, are less stressed, and are less likely to suffer from depression and other emotional pathologies.Even so, Canadians are now significantly less likely to form families, and when they do, fewer are choosing to have kids. The proportion of those aged 25-29 who are in a couple dropped by 10.9 percentage points between 2001-2021. Younger people are increasingly delaying marriage or common-law relationships into the late 30s or early 40s, with a growing fraction of people remaining single well into middle age."At least a third of Canadian children will see their families break up by the time they are 14, and more than a quarter live in one-parent families. While the proportion of children in one-parent families has remained stable in recent years, it is higher than in the US, the UK, or France," Sargent writes.The trend is owing to both economic and social factors, according to Sargent."From an economic perspective, incomes of young people, especially couples, have been advancing. However, real housing prices have risen dramatically in Canada over the last 15 years, both absolutely and relative to the US and the UK, and home ownership rates have been falling for younger people," Sergent writes."There has been a marked reduction in the mental health of young adults, and a corresponding rise in anxiety about the future. Nonetheless, when surveyed, women still say that on average they would like to have 2.2 children, well above current levels."Canada’s fertility rate was a record-low 1.3% in 2022, down from 1.6% in 2016.“Governments have every reason to worry,” writes Sargent.“The most important step in addressing these problems is perhaps… to recognize that the declining family formation, dropping marriage rates, and deteriorating fertility are serious problems facing our society, and they should be a top priority for policymakers in our country,” concludes Sargent.The author recommends policies that make housing more affordable, use the tax system to incentivize family growth and the raising of children, subsidize daycare, and address the rising problem of "credentialism." Sargent says finding ways to reduce the formal educational requirements for jobs will allow young people to marry, afford a house, and have children earlier.
Fertility and family are on the decline in Canada, and governments should be worried about it, a policy advisor warns.In a new report, Decline and fall: Trends in family formation and fertility in Canada since 2001, jointly published by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, Tim Sargent asks three questions: (1) do people gain significantly from being part of a family? (2) What are the trends in family formation in Canada over the past two decades? And (3), what factors explain these trends?The 56-page report finds that being part of a family provides incredible benefits, both in terms of income and broader well-being. A few highlights:Adjusting for economies of scale (recognizing that couples require only 1.5 the income of a single person to have the same standard of living) the average single 35-45-year-old has only 49.2% of the income of their coupled counterpart.Single parent homes have approximately 35-40 percent less income per family member relative to a two-parent family.Married people have significantly lower incidence of, and better survival rates from both cancer and cardiovascular disease, are less stressed, and are less likely to suffer from depression and other emotional pathologies.Even so, Canadians are now significantly less likely to form families, and when they do, fewer are choosing to have kids. The proportion of those aged 25-29 who are in a couple dropped by 10.9 percentage points between 2001-2021. Younger people are increasingly delaying marriage or common-law relationships into the late 30s or early 40s, with a growing fraction of people remaining single well into middle age."At least a third of Canadian children will see their families break up by the time they are 14, and more than a quarter live in one-parent families. While the proportion of children in one-parent families has remained stable in recent years, it is higher than in the US, the UK, or France," Sargent writes.The trend is owing to both economic and social factors, according to Sargent."From an economic perspective, incomes of young people, especially couples, have been advancing. However, real housing prices have risen dramatically in Canada over the last 15 years, both absolutely and relative to the US and the UK, and home ownership rates have been falling for younger people," Sergent writes."There has been a marked reduction in the mental health of young adults, and a corresponding rise in anxiety about the future. Nonetheless, when surveyed, women still say that on average they would like to have 2.2 children, well above current levels."Canada’s fertility rate was a record-low 1.3% in 2022, down from 1.6% in 2016.“Governments have every reason to worry,” writes Sargent.“The most important step in addressing these problems is perhaps… to recognize that the declining family formation, dropping marriage rates, and deteriorating fertility are serious problems facing our society, and they should be a top priority for policymakers in our country,” concludes Sargent.The author recommends policies that make housing more affordable, use the tax system to incentivize family growth and the raising of children, subsidize daycare, and address the rising problem of "credentialism." Sargent says finding ways to reduce the formal educational requirements for jobs will allow young people to marry, afford a house, and have children earlier.
