Based on strong population growth, tight inventories and stable economic factors, Alberta’s largest cities are forecast to see modest home prices over the next 12 months, bucking a national trend of decreases..Nationally, the aggregate home price is expected to decrease 1% by the end of 2023, according to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, which forecasts the median price of a single-family home to decrease 2% and the condominium median price to decline 1% across the country..Royal LePage is expecting year-over-year price declines in the first half of 2023, with a rebound in the second half..The aggregate price in Calgary is forecast to increase 1.5%; the single-family median price to rise 1%, and; the median price of a condominium to increase 2.5% over the course of next year..“Price declines in Calgary are unlikely next year,” says Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark..“Unlike Canada’s other major urban centres, which saw steep increases during the pandemic boom followed by rapid declines over the last six months, the Calgary market has experienced less drastic swings.”.“I expect we will see moderate price growth in the entry-level market, particularly in the condominium segment, which remains very active and has recorded double-digit sales growth this year. This segment will lead Calgary’s price growth in 2023.”.Lyall says Calgary has seen, and continues to see, demand from out-of-province buyers..“Particularly first-time buyers from Ontario who are seeking affordable housing options in a major city setting,” she says. “Condominiums are popular among out-of-province investors.”.A lack of available inventory, especially in single-family homes, remains a challenge for buyers and continues to put upward pressure on prices, particularly in the lower end of the market, says Lyall..“Buyer demand has remained consistent, and I anticipate Calgary’s real estate market will continue to see a steady pace of activity.” she says..“There are many buyers hovering on the sidelines, waiting for the right product to hit the market and I expect we’ll see a normal seasonal slowdown in December and January before picking back up in the spring.”.The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton a year from now is forecast to increase 1%, with a 2% increase in the median price of a single-family home, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to decrease 1.5%, according to the Royal LePage survey..“Edmonton’s housing market continues to experience a shortage of inventory compared to pre-pandemic levels, which is helping to keep home prices in check and the overall market balanced,” says Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “As home buying budgets continue to shrink due to the rising cost of living and higher lending rates, we expect that sales activity will remain relatively flat in 2023.”.“As a result, we are anticipating near level price growth at the end of next year, with a majority of price appreciation expected to occur in the highly sought-after single-family segment.”.As in Calgary, Shearer says buyers from outside of Alberta and elsewhere in the province continue to enter Edmonton’s housing market. .“Since the beginning of February, demand has been strong from Ontario and British Columbia buyers looking to relocate to Edmonton, due to its relative affordability and healthy job market.” .“Continued strong interprovincial demand will help to keep Edmonton's market healthy and balanced at the start of the new year and through the spring. I expect a return to normal seasonal trends next year, with increased activity in the summer and a slight pullback through the fall.”.Royal LePage expects Canada’s largest markets to see the largest price declines during 2023..In the Greater Toronto Area, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to decrease 2%, with the median price of a single-family home declining 2.5%, while the median condominium price showing a modest 1% increase. .“The city of Toronto and surrounding regions have seen some of the steepest price declines in the country since interest rates began climbing earlier this year,” says Karen Yolevski, CEO, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. .The Royal LePage forecast for the aggregate home price in Greater Vancouver by the fourth quarter of 2023 is a 1% decline, the median price of a single-family home is expected to decline 2%, with a modest 1% increase in the median price of a condominium..“Although many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines, activity levels are showing signs of a return to seasonal norms in Greater Vancouver. Attractive properties in sought-after neighbourhoods that are priced properly continue to sell quickly,” says Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty..“With supply still well below what is required for the market to be considered balanced, I expect we will begin to see prices stabilize in the spring and summer, when some sidelined buyers return to the market.”
