Canada’s housing markets ended the summer on a soft note, with home resale activity and prices falling in Canada’s top four markets, with degrees of decline varying in September, says Robert Hogue, an economist with RBC Economics..“Buyers are in an exceptionally tight squeeze, facing the worst affordability conditions ever in large parts of the country,” says Hogue. “They’re clearly on the defensive at this stage. Activity is particularly soft, far below pre-pandemic levels, in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Victoria and Toronto where affordability pressures are most intense.”.Hogue says the negative impact of higher interest rates is depressing values of higher-priced, single-family homes the most. .“There remain pockets of strength out there and Calgary is one of them,” says Hogue. “A much-improved provincial economy and rebounding migration no doubt help keep activity humming at this juncture.” .“But the lesser sensitivity to interest rates of relatively affordable markets, such as Calgary, plays a big role too. We believe this factor will contain the price correction in the Prairies, and parts of Quebec and Atlantic Canada.”.Major Market Overviews.Calgary.“The market’s strength really stands out amid the generalized softness across the country. Despite declining significantly from stratospheric levels at the start of this year, home resale activity is holding far above pre-pandemic levels and close to the previous all-time peak,” says Hogue. “Demand-supply conditions are still very tight despite easing over the past nine months. Alberta’s stronger economy, the rebound of migration and Calgary’s relatively favourable affordability undoubtedly continue to stoke housing demand at this stage.” .“Nonetheless, rising interest rates have altered the pricing equation, with Calgary’s composite MLS home price index moderating 3.6% over the last four months, reversing a small part of its gain earlier this year. We expect interest rates increases will apply modest downward pressure on prices in the near term.”.Vancouver area.The market continues to slide, but at a slower rate, says Hogue..“We estimate seasonally-adjusted resales fell slightly by less than 1% month over month in September, following drops averaging 7% in the previous two months and 13% between April and June. Vancouver buyers remain under tremendous pressure at this point, with higher interest rates hitting them especially hard given the sky-high property values in the area.”.“The softening in prices in time will help but so far, it’s done little to ease severe affordability issues. The composite MLS HPI has declined for five-straight months, down a cumulative 8.7%. It’s been a widespread trend within the region with local areas recording declines ranging between 3% and 17%.” .Greater Toronto Area.“Price trends vary across the GTA but the stillness in activity is widespread,” says Hogue. “Home resales stayed soft in both the 416 and 905 regions last month, down 49% and 42% year over year respectively. Overall activity reversed a monthly gain in August, declining 11% month over month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”.“Single-detached benchmark prices are now below year-ago levels, or will soon be, in many areas, including Halton and Durham regions, the City of Toronto, and Dufferin and Simcoe counties. Condo prices are still up 13% to 18% from year ago, with the demand for more affordable options like condos remaining relatively strong.”.Montreal .Home resales fell 10% month to month in August and an estimated 6% in September.“Last month’s activity was the slowest in seven years excluding the spring 2020 lockdown period,” Hogue. “Most of the weakening is occurring on the Island of Montreal, where resales are down 39% year over year though all parts of the region are seeing material resales declines for both single-family homes and condos.”.“Median prices are down 8% for single-family homes and 7% for condos since the spring peak with the biggest drops taking place on the pricier Island of Montreal. In fact, Island prices are now below year-ago levels.” .“We see little that would alter the market’s trajectory in the coming months, especially with more interest rate hikes likely to weigh on buyers.”.The next rate reviews are Oct. 26 and Dec. 7, with RBC expecting the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate by another 75 basis points to 4% by the end of this year.
