James Albers is a Calgary-based management consultant specializing in leadership developmentThe public square has once again become the battlefield of confederation, and the punditocracy is out in full plumage. Some wave away Alberta’s rising independence movement as just another tantrum thrown after the Liberals skated back into power. But only a fool — or worse, a Toronto editorialist — would fail to see this as something deeper... more tectonic. That is, there is a slow, volcanic churning deep within the Alberta psyche. And it is not receding.Let us speak plainly. The polling numbers for division in Czechoslovakia — yes, a country that actually managed to civilly divorce itself — hovered prior to the split around a tepid 15%, peaking at a modest 36%. And yet, the velvet curtain fell. By contrast, Alberta has consistently polled between 18% and 45% in support of independence. In short, the horse has not only left the barn — it’s halfway to the Rockies and gaining speed.More and more of those who once grimaced and bartered with Ottawa, now brace and prepare — not for more compromise, but for departure. Because this time, the argument is not merely political. It is mathematical..Predictably, the Laurentian elites, whose cultural compass swings no further west than Bay Street, have begun their reflexive fear campaign. “Economic instability!” they cry. “Market chaos!” they howl. As if Ottawa’s fiscal stewardship hasn’t already plunged us into historic debt, staggering inflation, and a marketplace held together by duct tape and wishful thinking.So when Alberta becomes independent and we need to balance the books with Ottawa, what do those numbers look like?In 2019, Canada’s national debt sat at $685 billion. Alberta’s share — pro-rated by population — was roughly $80 billion. That works out to about $18,000 per person.Fast-forward to 2024. At $1.2 trillion, the federal debt has almost doubled. The debt-to-GDP ratio hovers near 42%. Alberta’s share? A stupefying $144 billion, or nearly $30,000 per citizen. That's more than a 1.6 fold increase in just six years. One would think we’d accidentally adopted Venezuela’s budget office.And for what? More pipelines blocked? More carbon taxes levied? More environmental scoldings from downtown Montreal?.Now, layer in the cold fiscal reality of what Alberta is owed. From 1984 to 2019, Ottawa drained an estimated $490 billion in net transfers from Alberta under equalization, CPP surpluses, health transfers, and a litany of programs for which we never voted and from which we never benefitted. We were the paymaster for a nation that rarely said "thank you," and even more rarely said, "you're right."When you subtract Alberta’s share of the federal debt from what the nation owes us, you land at a positive balance of $364 billion. That’s right. If Alberta were a business, and Canada its parent company, we wouldn’t be in arrears — we’d be the majority shareholder demanding a dividend.Now, would Ottawa want to pay that? Of course not. Could they afford to? Laughable. But sovereignty is not only measured in dollars. It’s measured in leverage. And Alberta has plenty..We could, for instance, negotiate a land-for-debt swap — ceding the long-ignored regions of central and northern British Columbia in exchange for debt forgiveness. It would give Alberta access to the Pacific Ocean and to rural B.C., freedom from the Vancouver progressive monoculture that governs with urban disdain.And if that seems far-fetched, let’s recall: most of Eastern Canada is lit and heated by Alberta natural gas. That includes Quebec, Ontario, and the very corridors of power that seek to restrain us. That gas, flowing eastward, is not merely a commodity — it is a geopolitical lifeline. And yes, independence would put our hand on the valve.At independence, Alberta would be launched as one of the rarest of nations: low debt, high resources, a young and industrious population, and a business-first culture unshackled by eastern contempt.Let the chattering classes scoff. But remember this: every empire forgets the value of its frontier — until the frontiersmen walk away.James Albers is a Calgary-based management consultant specializing in leadership development.
