AMBLER: Monday's real winner gets cheap energy

Steve Ambler is professor emeritus of economics in the École des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à MontréalThe most oft-repeated word uttered by Mark Carney during the election campaign was “crisis.” From his point of view, it worked.The NDP share of the vote decreased from 17.8 percent to 6.3 percent in 2025. The party ran a campaign which was lacklustre at best, but some of the vote loss can be attributed to NDP voters defecting to the Liberals to help combat the perceived threat from the US.The same is likely true for the Bloc Québécois. Its share of the vote in Quebec decreased by more than 4 percentage points (from 32.1 to about 27.8) as some of its voters decided to get their elbows up rather than supporting the narrow interests of Quebec. The main beneficiaries were once again the Liberals. They increased their seat count from 35 to 43, while the Bloc lost 9 seats..So it seems that many voters were influenced by the Orange Man Bad living rent-free in their heads. Unfortunately, their decisions have delivered an unintended consequence: The real winner of the election was one Donald J. Trump.The Liberal victory likely means no new pipelines for the foreseeable future. This will limit the possible markets for crude oil and natural gas from Western Canada and keep their prices at substantial discounts compared to those on world markets, thus providing the US with cheap supplies of energy. The oil that Ontario and Quebec do get from the West will continue to move through the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline in the US, making them vulnerable to shutdowns for any reason.Private investment in Canada was already hemorrhaging under the Trudeau administration. Even larger federal deficits under the new Liberal administration, and its continued emphasis on managing the economy from the top down by administrative fiat, will not improve the situation. Instead, investment funds will continue to migrate to the US where tax rates and the business climate in general are more advantageous..This top-down approach to governance will continue to affect housing policy. The Liberals have proposed partnering with the private sector to produce prefabricated housing units. The chances that this will alleviate Canada’s housing crisis are slim at best.In addition, immigration will likely proceed at a slightly slower clip, but not slow enough so that any supply of prefabricated houses will meet the additional demand. Housing prices will remain out of reach for many young Canadians. Those with skills seeking a more affordable future will also move south along with the investment dollars.Canada is therefore in a much weaker position to negotiate a new trade deal with the Trump administration.All of these consequences will lead to the most important consequence of all. The Alberta (and more generally the Western) independence movement has received a major boost. It’s clear that voters east of the Manitoba-Ontario border are not sensitive to the concerns of Western Canadians who are faced with a Liberal party which now threatens to finish killing off the resource sector and which seems to be completely indifferent to the plight of Western farmers facing punitive Chinese tariffs. Those voting Tory in the East (mostly in some parts of Southern Ontario, in the Quebec City region, and in rural Atlantic Canada) probably did so for reasons other than concerns about Western Canada..This Montrealer and former Calgarian sees an Alberta independence referendum in the near future, with a more than fair chance of success. The Wexit movement would just need a charismatic leader along the lines of René Lévesque to push it over the goal line.Trump or a future Republican administration would be unwise to gobble up Eastern Canada (with or without Quebec), since it would likely guarantee a substantial majority of additional electoral college votes for the Democrats. However, having a weak and dependent rump of a country on their northeast border will likely benefit the Americans in many ways.Steve Ambler is professor emeritus of economics in the École des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Montréal.