The BC Conservatives are heading into Saturday’s provincial election with a projected majority, but a divided vote and a large pool of undecided voters could still leave the NDP a path back to power.
Based on the latest polling from Clearview Strategies, the Conservatives are projected to take 52 of the legislature’s 93 seats, compared with 41 for the New Democrats.
That gives the Conservatives an 11-seat advantage, but little room for complacency.
In 24 ridings, the two parties are separated by five percentage points or less. The NDP leads in 13 of those contests; the Conservatives lead in 11.
Even a modest shift in support could dramatically reshape the electoral map.
Smaller parties could play an outsized role in determining the outcome. While none is currently projected to win a seat, their supporters could determine which major party forms the government.
In Saanich North and the Islands, this situation is illustrated clearly.
The Conservatives hold a five-point lead, while the Greens and NDP are running nearly even. If Green supporters were to consolidate behind the New Democrats, the Conservative advantage could become a substantial NDP lead.
Provincewide, a hypothetical transfer of all Green support to the NDP could flip as many as 14 additional seats, according to the polling figures. That would be more than enough to overturn the projected Conservative majority.
The Conservatives face a vote-splitting problem of their own.
OneBC and CentreBC are competing for voters who might otherwise support the Conservatives. If every OneBC voter shifted to the Conservatives, as many as ten additional ridings could move into the Conservative column.
These scenarios assume every voter would transfer their support to another party, something that is unlikely to happen in practice. Nevertheless, they illustrate just how consequential smaller-party support could become.
The greatest uncertainty, however, lies with voters who have yet to make up their minds.
Undecided voters account for between 9% and 32% of respondents in individual ridings, averaging approximately 19% across the province.
In many competitive seats, the undecided vote is several times larger than the margin separating the Conservatives and NDP.
Consider Kootenay Central.
The Conservatives lead by five points, while CentreBC and OneBC each attract approximately 5% support. The Greens hold another 11%.
With a significant number of undecided voters still in play, even relatively small shifts between parties could determine the winner.
Kelowna–Lake Country presents another closely contested race.
The NDP sits at 36%, trailing the Conservatives by just a few points. OneBC has 5% support, the Greens have 10%, and another 10% of voters remain undecided.
Those numbers leave considerable room for movement in either direction.
For voters hoping to replace the NDP government, the polling presents a difficult calculation.
In closely contested ridings, support for OneBC or CentreBC could divide the non-NDP vote enough to allow a New Democrat candidate to win.
Green supporters face a similar dilemma. In ridings where the Conservatives and NDP are closely matched, a strong Green vote could prevent the New Democrats from consolidating enough support to defeat the Conservative candidate.
Under BC’s first-past-the-post electoral system, a candidate does not need majority support to win a seat. They simply need more votes than any individual opponent.
That makes the distribution of votes particularly important in the 24 ridings where the Conservatives and New Democrats are separated by five points or less.
The Conservatives enter election day with the advantage, but their projected majority is far from guaranteed.
With nearly one-in-five voters still undecided and smaller parties drawing support in several competitive ridings, the outcome could come down to a relatively small number of votes.
The outcome of this election is riding on whether or not Conservative support will be sufficiently united to keep the New Democrats from returning to power.
