ANDRUS: Danielle Smith found the right formula and risks undoing it

Most political fights are about moving the Overton window — defined as the boundaries of what is considered reasonable, realistic, or politically acceptable public policy.Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s greatest political strength has always been recognizing when circumstances are changing before everyone else does.Her weakness is what comes next.Again and again, she identifies a genuine political problem and then adjusts so aggressively that she creates a new one.By giving Albertans confidence that their grievances were finally being taken seriously — that their government was willing to fight, negotiate, and leverage every constitutional tool available — Smith had, at least temporarily, found the political equilibrium Alberta conservatives had been searching for.Her government occupied a relatively stable political middle ground.On one side sat outright Alberta independence — emotionally compelling but hard to achieve.On the other sat status-quo federalism — the long-standing view that Alberta’s frustrations were either illegitimate or exaggerated, and that those raising alarms about Confederation were little more than a restless fringe to be managed rather than heard..In the middle sat the sovereignty agenda, recognizing Alberta’s grievances as legitimate — equalization, regulatory hostility toward energy, emissions caps, federal intrusion into provincial jurisdiction, and a growing sense of democratic alienation — while insisting those problems could still be solved within Confederation.Push harder. Use leverage. Assert provincial autonomy. The Alberta Sovereignty Act — the issue that propelled Smith through the leadership race to replace former premier Jason Kenney — was controversial with the conservative establishment, but politically brilliant. It gave frustrated Albertans confidence that their government was willing to fight back. More importantly, it expanded the window of what was politically possible. It recognized independence sentiment without embracing it. It also created a framework in which Alberta could properly leverage its position within Confederation to seek fairness in how it was treated.The Provincial Priorities Act that followed reinforced that posture, theoretically embedding another firewall in Edmonton by forcing agreements with Ottawa through a lens of provincial interest and fiscal scrutiny.For perhaps the first time in a generation, Alberta conservatives had found a political equilibrium..Then the ground shifted.First came President Donald Trump’s annexation rhetoric.Then, former prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned.Then came Mark Carney, defeating Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, pulling the federal Liberals back from what once looked like political oblivion.Suddenly, a deep sense of political anxiety began settling over Alberta’s conservative establishment.And with that anxiety came pressure.Pressure on Smith to lower the temperature.Pressure to denounce Alberta independence more aggressively..Pressure to reassure nervous business leaders, federalists, and institutional conservatives that Alberta remained firmly anchored to Canada.Meanwhile, inside Alberta’s conservative base, the political winds were moving in the opposite direction.For many Albertans, Carney’s victory was not simply another election result. It represented the collapse of what many viewed as the last realistic opportunity for a federal course correction.The hope that Ottawa might finally abandon the carbon tax consensus, soften its hostility toward conventional energy development, and meaningfully rebalance Confederation suddenly looked far more distant.With that realization came something Alberta’s political class has long underestimated: a growing despair that Confederation itself may no longer be capable of reform.Smith’s move last week — making independence procedurally harder, shifting the goalposts, signalling she would personally oppose independence, and increasingly speaking of Prime Minister Mark Carney as an opportunity for a renewed federal relationship — risks weakening the sovereignty position she once occupied.Federal Liberals remain federal Liberals. The institutional incentives that created conflict between Alberta and Ottawa have not changed simply because a new face arrived in the Prime Minister’s Office.By moving toward accommodation at the precise moment independence pressure is rising, Smith risks shifting the political centre toward the status-quo federalists she once effectively marginalized..The old middle ground — forceful autonomy within Confederation — now feels squeezed from both directions.Which brings us to Kenney, whose premiership increasingly moved away from the confrontational “stand up to Ottawa” posture many Alberta conservatives expected — a shift that ultimately contributed to his political collapse.Alongside long-time conservative strategist Monte Solberg, he has launched VoteToStay.ca — an initiative explicitly dedicated to persuading Albertans to remain in Canada.To Kenney and Solberg's credit, they acknowledge Alberta's grievances are real. But acknowledgement is not a solution. The website offers little in the way of structural answers to the very grievances now driving alienation: equalization, emissions caps, federal regulatory overreach, energy hostility, or the growing imbalance between provincial and federal power.It may also be the clearest evidence yet that the political window has shifted away from the sovereigntist middle ground that once held Alberta conservatism together..Which is why the current moment feels so consequential.If Albertans begin to believe that leverage is disappearing while the underlying grievances remain unresolved, politics will not calmly return to the old federalist consensus.Once people stop believing that Confederation can be fixed, then what comes next?That is the question Alberta’s political class spent years dismissing rather than answering.Now, old-guard, institutionalist conservatives like Kenney and Solberg appear confident they can launch “Stay in Canada” campaigns without first offering solutions to the grievances that brought Alberta to this point.If preserving Confederation now requires organized political campaigns from former Reform Party MPs — while the case for reform in Confederation continues to weaken — then Alberta may already be moving beyond the conservative middle that once held this movement together.And if that middle collapses, it will be because too many people stopped believing Canada was willing to work for Alberta, not the other way around.

ANDRUS: Danielle Smith found the right formula and risks undoing it

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